{ "ticker": { "uuid": "038fc08f-b6a4-4cbc-8f99-f76e3c3f7f41", "symbol": "AEE", "name": "Ameren Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.841, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.872, "architecture_energy": 11.985, "architecture_maturity": 20.911, "architecture_confidence": 73.427, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.35, "rotation_up": 25.37, "upward_expansion": 54.86, "deceleration": 87.23, "rotation_down": 32.53, "downward_expansion": 20.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.668, 111.718661, 111.053005, 110.552363 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 108.84, "trend_reference": 109.331743, "distance_from_trend": -0.004498, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 88.012405, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236644, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.852104, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.049962, "excess_performance": -0.075663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004498, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036995, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236644, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036484, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02959, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049962, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.649113, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8934256, "relative_activity": 1.090894, "balance": 0.649113, "dry_up": 0.946952, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048792, "annualized_volatility": 0.224611, "from_high_reference": -0.080122, "from_low_reference": 0.142596 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 109.331743, "fair_value_reference": 88.012405, "structural_low": 102.536396, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.013158, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.018291, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.097455, "worst_return": -0.062682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.022599, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.001013, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.226016, "worst_return": -0.110216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.000504, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.044787, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.190032, "worst_return": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.738413, "energy": 52.407168, "activity_lines": [ 113.325333, 111.996228, 110.996095, 110.136278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 113.78, "volume": 6012619, "typical_volume": 8245069.3, "trend": 108.651401, "fair_value": 87.560336, "relative_strength": 0.421103, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.572197, "energy": 32.647578, "activity_lines": [ 113.485333, 112.549128, 111.31363, 110.500117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.61, "volume": 8180590, "typical_volume": 8235689.95, "trend": 108.988787, "fair_value": 87.787407, "relative_strength": -4.13105, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.922165, "energy": 14.621203, "activity_lines": [ 111.914667, 112.1956, 111.216038, 110.561962 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.84, "volume": 8934256, "typical_volume": 8189844.9, "trend": 109.331743, "fair_value": 88.012405, "relative_strength": -7.852104, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.872238, "energy": 11.984911, "activity_lines": [ 110.668, 111.718661, 111.053005, 110.552363 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }