{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03901e08-2d44-4a50-b2af-08e08c6fcc72", "symbol": "SKYU", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRA NASDAQ CLOUD COMPUTING", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.403, "architecture_energy": 72.72, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.439, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.94, "rotation_up": 72.67, "upward_expansion": 90.06, "deceleration": 43.99, "rotation_down": 14.28, "downward_expansion": 14.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.16262, 38.94862, 37.074438, 34.714092 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 47.9237, "trend_reference": 32.31544, "distance_from_trend": 0.482997, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.199363, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.641258, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.613253, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.766638, "excess_performance": 0.579184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.482997, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006895, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.641258, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.38223, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.206133, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.346437, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.766638, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.716628, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39917, "relative_activity": 2.603985, "balance": 0.716628, "dry_up": 1.074958, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101555, "annualized_volatility": 0.675254, "from_high_reference": -0.023461, "from_low_reference": 1.125417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.31544, "fair_value_reference": 29.199363, "structural_low": 22.5479, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.014085, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.014535, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.280013, "worst_return": -0.276842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.123474, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.050277, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.355659, "worst_return": -0.473614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.102813, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.137045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.177061, "worst_return": -0.286401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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34.5077, "volume": 3557, "typical_volume": 13345.5, "trend": 31.7479, "fair_value": 28.857883, "relative_strength": -7.892609, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.708669, "energy": 28.686065, "activity_lines": [ 36.1642, 36.382383, 34.924579, 33.119398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.46, "volume": 7724, "typical_volume": 13635.5, "trend": 31.918039, "fair_value": 29.002728, "relative_strength": 7.363673, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.879176, "energy": 43.149315, "activity_lines": [ 37.647087, 37.026493, 35.678007, 33.681469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.9237, "volume": 39917, "typical_volume": 15329.2, "trend": 32.31544, "fair_value": 29.199363, "relative_strength": 20.613253, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.402748, "energy": 72.719686, "activity_lines": [ 41.16262, 38.94862, 37.074438, 34.714092 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }