{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0392303a-9195-4db6-814e-52f2eead4339", "symbol": "AXE", "name": "Archer Materials Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.567, "architecture_energy": 81.354, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.978, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.19, "rotation_up": 8.54, "upward_expansion": 19.39, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 78.76, "downward_expansion": 95.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.224, 0.251727, 0.284905, 0.299032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.23, "trend_reference": 0.321667, "distance_from_trend": -0.284974, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.346154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.335556, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.871361, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.397039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.284974, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0827, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.335556, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152452, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338714, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263686, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.171805, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2014525, "relative_activity": 1.001948, "balance": 0.171805, "dry_up": 1.761627, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.183946, "annualized_volatility": 0.578395, "from_high_reference": -0.544554, "from_low_reference": 0.095238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.321667, "fair_value_reference": 0.346154, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.02037, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.018514, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.28481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.013362, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.516854, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069523, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003115, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.433962, "worst_return": -0.561798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.333, "fair_value": 0.350032, "relative_strength": -35.268881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.136389, "energy": 86.203887, "activity_lines": [ 0.241, 0.280909, 0.301071, 0.313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.215, "volume": 2914766, "typical_volume": 1941511.05, "trend": 0.3285, "fair_value": 0.347981, "relative_strength": -36.435878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.096857, "energy": 86.593452, "activity_lines": [ 0.226667, 0.264091, 0.291952, 0.305387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.23, "volume": 2014525, "typical_volume": 2010608.3, "trend": 0.321667, "fair_value": 0.346154, "relative_strength": -33.871361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.566788, "energy": 81.353615, "activity_lines": [ 0.224, 0.251727, 0.284905, 0.299032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }