{ "ticker": { "uuid": "039dbb98-a77c-4b67-bf31-99321c0c8c0e", "symbol": "ZDY", "name": "BMO US Dividend ETF (CAD)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.308, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.191, "architecture_energy": 52.538, "architecture_maturity": 93.052, "architecture_confidence": 61.048, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.89, "rotation_up": 48.43, "upward_expansion": 73.3, "deceleration": 82.67, "rotation_down": 27.78, "downward_expansion": 20.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.59428, 58.617617, 57.754713, 56.526584 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 59.139999, "trend_reference": 54.980894, "distance_from_trend": 0.075646, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.57163, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.269872, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.759967, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.121126, "excess_performance": 0.000705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075646, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040228, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.269872, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03917, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0176, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02236, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121126, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.210918, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14400, "relative_activity": 0.640569, "balance": 1.210918, "dry_up": 1.63145, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01843, "annualized_volatility": 0.101862, "from_high_reference": -0.006384, "from_low_reference": 0.214094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.980894, "fair_value_reference": 46.57163, "structural_low": 50.499212, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.0157, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": 0.00049, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.065087, "worst_return": -0.05565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.017008, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.000137, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.088231, "worst_return": -0.030524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.070349, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.003994, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.118596, "worst_return": -0.067187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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65.21597, "activity_lines": [ 58.590124, 58.422307, 56.922414, 55.719166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.913643, "volume": 27200, "typical_volume": 22130.0, "trend": 54.457016, "fair_value": 46.294561, "relative_strength": 0.354266, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.985259, "energy": 65.536385, "activity_lines": [ 58.670956, 58.576972, 57.257801, 56.019992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.889999, "volume": 37400, "typical_volume": 23340.0, "trend": 54.720799, "fair_value": 46.430558, "relative_strength": -0.831628, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.260371, "energy": 53.116383, "activity_lines": [ 58.402647, 58.488101, 57.461509, 56.241474 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.139999, "volume": 14400, "typical_volume": 22480.0, "trend": 54.980894, "fair_value": 46.57163, "relative_strength": -1.759967, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.191305, "energy": 52.538282, "activity_lines": [ 58.59428, 58.617617, 57.754713, 56.526584 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }