{ "ticker": { "uuid": "039fdb91-8bad-4092-b38d-c9292c41b90a", "symbol": "603196", "name": "Shanghai Porigine Chemical Material Group Co. Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.28, "architecture_energy": 75.766, "architecture_maturity": 21.783, "architecture_confidence": 90.269, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.4, "rotation_up": 12.51, "upward_expansion": 17.92, "deceleration": 37.57, "rotation_down": 72.55, "downward_expansion": 93.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.194, 21.305636, 23.561953, 24.782344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.370001, "trend_reference": 25.818333, "distance_from_trend": -0.172294, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.940311, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.674853, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.188686, "excess_performance": -0.145483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172294, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03071, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261488, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.45546, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273585, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188686, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.63346, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11038534, "relative_activity": 0.576894, "balance": 0.63346, "dry_up": 0.786864, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130449, "annualized_volatility": 0.601867, "from_high_reference": -0.395474, "from_low_reference": 0.176762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.818333, "fair_value_reference": 16.940311, "structural_low": 18.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.010692, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.018819, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.2954, "worst_return": -0.243704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025439, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.029482, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.510638, "worst_return": -0.216583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.066282, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.12255, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.196395, "worst_return": -0.383846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"typical_volume": 19893463.35, "trend": 26.536, "fair_value": 16.958439, "relative_strength": -12.150294, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.909722, "energy": 45.091001, "activity_lines": [ 23.317333, 23.968727, 26.027048, 26.403075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.59, "volume": 24537410, "typical_volume": 20234008.95, "trend": 26.388333, "fair_value": 16.956187, "relative_strength": -12.110758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.764373, "energy": 65.081611, "activity_lines": [ 22.341333, 23.181636, 25.418524, 26.019463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 14513270, "typical_volume": 20095602.65, "trend": 26.17, "fair_value": 16.947063, "relative_strength": -20.678208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.469323, "energy": 79.038704, "activity_lines": [ 20.852666, 22.213091, 24.669667, 25.529893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.17, "volume": 10135500, "typical_volume": 19593591.35, "trend": 25.957, "fair_value": 16.935134, "relative_strength": -19.402304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.109079, "energy": 84.591096, "activity_lines": [ 19.991333, 21.491636, 23.990714, 25.07828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.370001, "volume": 11038534, "typical_volume": 19134415.65, "trend": 25.818333, "fair_value": 16.940311, "relative_strength": -12.674853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.279772, "energy": 75.766316, "activity_lines": [ 20.194, 21.305636, 23.561953, 24.782344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }