{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03a15e7c-e32c-4663-9abf-ed067160c9eb", "symbol": "SPSY", "name": "Spectra Systems Corporation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 94.839, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.253, "architecture_energy": 18.07, "architecture_maturity": 53.42, "architecture_confidence": 73.533, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.95, "rotation_up": 23.97, "upward_expansion": 57.67, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 32.14, "downward_expansion": 21.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 175.733333, 180.310045, 177.108269, 169.163158 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 164.5, "trend_reference": 160.193773, "distance_from_trend": 0.026881, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 202.210978, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.186493, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.769793, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111486, "excess_performance": 0.060251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026881, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08216, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.186493, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048564, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097491, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111486, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.563425, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 635521, "relative_activity": 1.333488, "balance": 0.563425, "dry_up": 1.174328, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092412, "annualized_volatility": 0.475506, "from_high_reference": -0.224057, "from_low_reference": 0.465479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 160.193773, "fair_value_reference": 202.210978, "structural_low": 112.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002304, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01563, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.108597, "worst_return": -0.104575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.039982, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.198157, "worst_return": -0.014706, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.161829, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.077993, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212418, "worst_return": -0.014706, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 186.0, "volume": 324444, "typical_volume": 428295.9, "trend": 158.11044, "fair_value": 202.069875, "relative_strength": 5.591731, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.784491, "energy": 51.423354, "activity_lines": [ 187.732747, 185.271624, 174.543695, 166.140447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 185.5, "volume": 778313, "typical_volume": 454926.5, "trend": 159.16044, "fair_value": 202.186354, "relative_strength": 4.792569, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.938069, "energy": 46.878276, "activity_lines": [ 187.319073, 185.980327, 176.666013, 167.907515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 174.0, "volume": 500392, "typical_volume": 463116.95, "trend": 159.877106, "fair_value": 202.229115, "relative_strength": -2.042632, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.752059, "energy": 32.446734, "activity_lines": [ 182.733333, 184.023512, 177.452617, 168.864906 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 164.5, "volume": 635521, "typical_volume": 476585.35, "trend": 160.193773, "fair_value": 202.210978, "relative_strength": -6.769793, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.253319, "energy": 18.070284, "activity_lines": [ 175.733333, 180.310045, 177.108269, 169.163158 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }