{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03a5bb02-36e9-46e9-8c37-fe8c1d3aa567", "symbol": "SOXL", "name": "DIREXION DAILY SEMICONDUCTOR BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.608, "architecture_energy": 19.279, "architecture_maturity": 60.483, "architecture_confidence": 77.447, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.04, "rotation_up": 15.5, "upward_expansion": 41.33, "deceleration": 86.83, "rotation_down": 43.97, "downward_expansion": 35.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 135.584, 161.651455, 170.077095, 150.17443 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 140.25, "trend_reference": 122.945667, "distance_from_trend": 0.140748, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.174644, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.85208, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 48.737068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.271255, "excess_performance": 1.14563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.140748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.600716, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.85208, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.096031, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.487371, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.976169, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.271255, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.993889, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 345465727, "relative_activity": 1.012841, "balance": 0.993889, "dry_up": 1.143297, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.47349, "annualized_volatility": 1.368235, "from_high_reference": -0.535596, "from_low_reference": 4.929468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 122.945667, "fair_value_reference": 49.174644, "structural_low": 39.52, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073665, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.05815, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.322086, "worst_return": -0.039316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.054341, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.01395, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149823, "worst_return": 0.029892, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.909413, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.75631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.925591, "worst_return": -0.109663, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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209.650545, 175.072619, 146.108602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 135.47, "volume": 351118428, "typical_volume": 352061334.95, "trend": 114.733, "fair_value": 47.130256, "relative_strength": 59.511245, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.427647, "energy": 20.079696, "activity_lines": [ 180.086, 197.156727, 174.719619, 147.648086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 136.81, "volume": 284995616, "typical_volume": 339994177.85, "trend": 117.819667, "fair_value": 47.829993, "relative_strength": 58.191415, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.719571, "energy": 20.903181, "activity_lines": [ 158.75, 185.660545, 174.148048, 149.072409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.72, "volume": 578269268, "typical_volume": 344330552.8, "trend": 120.069, "fair_value": 48.408717, "relative_strength": 28.789465, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.844969, "energy": 16.474625, "activity_lines": [ 139.549333, 170.645636, 171.049238, 148.87243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 140.25, "volume": 345465727, "typical_volume": 341085704.2, "trend": 122.945667, "fair_value": 49.174644, "relative_strength": 48.737068, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.608183, "energy": 19.279304, "activity_lines": [ 135.584, 161.651455, 170.077095, 150.17443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }