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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.71, "architecture_energy": 70.927, "architecture_maturity": 36.586, "architecture_confidence": 77.416, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.82, "rotation_up": 71.01, "upward_expansion": 89.09, "deceleration": 45.6, "rotation_down": 10.61, "downward_expansion": 15.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 337.320713, 330.419133, 322.05891, 315.9733 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 334.36, "trend_reference": 308.927375, "distance_from_trend": 0.082326, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 252.107806, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326258, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.01154, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.095689, "excess_performance": -0.029936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082326, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042085, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326258, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041008, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000115, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014839, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095689, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.759628, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5402219, "relative_activity": 0.929019, "balance": 1.759628, "dry_up": 1.068679, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047811, "annualized_volatility": 0.203228, "from_high_reference": -0.063819, "from_low_reference": 0.263422 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 308.927375, "fair_value_reference": 252.107806, "structural_low": 276.702767, 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"relative_strength": 0.150657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.811055, "energy": 42.742889, "activity_lines": [ 317.927653, 314.824216, 310.39585, 307.06743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 338.792105, "volume": 5198017, "typical_volume": 5829765.95, "trend": 303.618605, "fair_value": 249.668927, "relative_strength": 5.57796, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.469208, "energy": 73.032485, "activity_lines": [ 325.90066, 319.417954, 313.538247, 309.444022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 349.249881, "volume": 6791138, "typical_volume": 5809007.6, "trend": 305.645735, "fair_value": 250.485611, "relative_strength": 9.32004, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.305805, "energy": 84.570823, "activity_lines": [ 335.700786, 325.42616, 317.555632, 312.387975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 334.130925, "volume": 7465957, "typical_volume": 5850093.35, "trend": 307.272659, "fair_value": 251.269589, "relative_strength": 3.424651, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.725722, "energy": 75.817582, "activity_lines": [ 337.183268, 328.080012, 319.905905, 314.225729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 334.36, "volume": 5402219, "typical_volume": 5814969.15, "trend": 308.927375, "fair_value": 252.107806, "relative_strength": 0.01154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.710429, "energy": 70.926947, "activity_lines": [ 337.320713, 330.419133, 322.05891, 315.9733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }