{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03a6f160-b0b7-40d4-8efa-5d4ab298a962", "symbol": "CHDN", "name": "Churchill Downs Incorporated", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.704, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.969, "architecture_energy": 29.929, "architecture_maturity": 13.928, "architecture_confidence": 91.355, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.13, "rotation_up": 20.73, "upward_expansion": 5.76, "deceleration": 44.01, "rotation_down": 47.06, "downward_expansion": 74.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.961333, 86.653636, 87.664143, 88.248516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 87.86, "trend_reference": 90.03, "distance_from_trend": -0.024103, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 112.96385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.222229, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.927561, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.060823, "excess_performance": -0.248277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024103, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075006, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.222229, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022674, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199276, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062305, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060823, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.282162, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6213572, "relative_activity": 1.284378, "balance": 1.282162, "dry_up": 1.116191, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070141, "annualized_volatility": 0.326509, "from_high_reference": -0.257626, "from_low_reference": 0.106549 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.03, "fair_value_reference": 112.96385, "structural_low": 79.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.026081, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.017579, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.159068, "worst_return": -0.089424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.049259, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.020682, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.248936, "worst_return": -0.142302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.049646, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.019536, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.277606, "worst_return": -0.141712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02047, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.124628, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.298768, "worst_return": -0.201545, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028561, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.262057, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021494, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048044, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084006, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023313, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159068, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 85.52, "volume": 4744317, "typical_volume": 4976094.2, "trend": 93.591667, "fair_value": 113.910109, "relative_strength": -24.848786, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.095673, "energy": 18.437873, "activity_lines": [ 88.100667, 87.722727, 88.726905, 89.918624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 83.95, "volume": 3269712, "typical_volume": 4783477.0, "trend": 92.564667, "fair_value": 113.602616, "relative_strength": -22.386179, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.570891, "energy": 27.631944, "activity_lines": [ 86.712667, 87.083091, 88.274476, 89.296581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.5, "volume": 3470236, "typical_volume": 4640461.1, "trend": 91.631, "fair_value": 113.406211, "relative_strength": -17.98106, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.902597, "energy": 27.582421, "activity_lines": [ 86.374, 86.983091, 88.102905, 88.905312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 84.3, "volume": 8646141, "typical_volume": 4761577.3, "trend": 90.709333, "fair_value": 113.182378, "relative_strength": -19.808473, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.544724, "energy": 39.404762, "activity_lines": [ 85.42, 86.487273, 87.709095, 88.432344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.86, "volume": 6213572, "typical_volume": 4837806.0, "trend": 90.03, "fair_value": 112.96385, "relative_strength": -19.927561, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.969184, "energy": 29.92908, "activity_lines": [ 85.961333, 86.653636, 87.664143, 88.248516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }