{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03b59aa7-437d-4694-88c7-ad6b400ffb59", "symbol": "AIR", "name": "Airbus SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.064, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.96, "architecture_energy": 79.542, "architecture_maturity": 15.446, "architecture_confidence": 66.619, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.13, "rotation_up": 75.57, "upward_expansion": 92.8, "deceleration": 43.8, "rotation_down": 13.27, "downward_expansion": 17.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 205.590666, 201.062, 191.232356, 186.011853 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 214.449997, "trend_reference": 183.592524, "distance_from_trend": 0.168076, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 157.944213, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.357758, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.633134, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.143447, "excess_performance": -0.030799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168076, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004628, "read": "Falling" 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155.202415, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.013206, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.004756, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.108893, "worst_return": -0.198221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.044555, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.00276, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.173261, "worst_return": -0.18065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.073843, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021157, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.186449, "worst_return": 0.011285, 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182.897552, "fair_value": 155.915024, "relative_strength": -14.344099, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.365948, "energy": 67.040155, "activity_lines": [ 196.344001, 189.239455, 181.238344, 180.604078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 193.779999, "volume": 3486, "typical_volume": 2745.85, "trend": 182.937741, "fair_value": 156.339309, "relative_strength": -13.584793, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.60298, "energy": 63.660244, "activity_lines": [ 196.608667, 191.010182, 182.920728, 181.306171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 205.75, "volume": 3781, "typical_volume": 2801.3, "trend": 183.362529, "fair_value": 156.852427, "relative_strength": -9.202835, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.200766, "energy": 68.306663, "activity_lines": [ 199.912667, 194.686728, 185.683413, 182.77793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 202.5, "volume": 3521, "typical_volume": 2863.05, "trend": 183.461652, "fair_value": 157.359595, "relative_strength": -10.372047, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.911238, "energy": 63.990334, "activity_lines": [ 201.112667, 197.083091, 187.976294, 184.012605 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 214.449997, "volume": 1509, "typical_volume": 2792.7, "trend": 183.592524, "fair_value": 157.944213, "relative_strength": -7.633134, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.95973, "energy": 79.541987, "activity_lines": [ 205.590666, 201.062, 191.232356, 186.011853 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }