{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03b9af9c-2947-4ca0-bb43-5f19a0be3b2d", "symbol": "IYC", "name": "ISHARES TRUST ISHARES US CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.894, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.767, "architecture_energy": 3.089, "architecture_maturity": 32.803, "architecture_confidence": 80.295, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 78.04, "rotation_up": 21.94, "upward_expansion": 23.88, "deceleration": 53.1, "rotation_down": 33.28, "downward_expansion": 52.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.096, 100.949462, 101.11545, 100.89924 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 103.91, "trend_reference": 101.145764, "distance_from_trend": 0.027329, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 89.712075, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158261, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.295144, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010062, "excess_performance": -0.115563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027329, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006309, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158261, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021594, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006225, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010062, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.941615, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 602374, "relative_activity": 1.163304, "balance": 0.941615, "dry_up": 1.097508, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029519, "annualized_volatility": 0.165409, "from_high_reference": -0.029575, "from_low_reference": 0.107059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.145764, "fair_value_reference": 89.712075, "structural_low": 93.861262, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.025461, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008626, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.048616, "worst_return": -0.122007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00039, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01179, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.197149, "worst_return": -0.092141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.157963, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012774, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.280306, "worst_return": -0.09431, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.101738, "energy": 7.144085, "activity_lines": [ 101.331393, 101.261456, 101.061786, 101.125031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 100.38, "volume": 605410, "typical_volume": 642239.4, "trend": 101.536786, "fair_value": 89.134331, "relative_strength": -9.742895, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.87684, "energy": 10.963571, "activity_lines": [ 101.022, 101.086535, 101.044176, 101.042819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.78, "volume": 552563, "typical_volume": 573726.3, "trend": 101.280663, "fair_value": 89.297699, "relative_strength": -12.136896, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.253001, "energy": 46.189792, "activity_lines": [ 99.582, 100.298145, 100.695699, 100.735929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.14, "volume": 512868, "typical_volume": 526117.45, "trend": 101.238026, "fair_value": 89.494308, "relative_strength": -8.899395, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.659479, "energy": 29.691972, "activity_lines": [ 99.899333, 100.363803, 100.781476, 100.726854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 103.91, "volume": 602374, "typical_volume": 517812.85, "trend": 101.145764, "fair_value": 89.712075, "relative_strength": -9.295144, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.767361, "energy": 3.088684, "activity_lines": [ 101.096, 100.949462, 101.11545, 100.89924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }