{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03c2bc5e-8aab-4654-9cd6-af76b276e385", "symbol": "TLH", "name": "ISHARES TRUST 10-20 YEAR TREASURY BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.189, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.146, "architecture_energy": 70.044, "architecture_maturity": 5.932, "architecture_confidence": 79.892, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.16, "rotation_up": 9.21, "upward_expansion": 15.85, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 73.97, "downward_expansion": 91.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.025796, 97.906268, 98.429171, 98.85895 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 97.05, "trend_reference": 99.452323, "distance_from_trend": -0.024156, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 96.504912, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.005648, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.319625, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03323, "excess_performance": -0.158855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024156, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005777, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.005648, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027041, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133196, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026024, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03323, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.907039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6483455, "relative_activity": 1.08117, "balance": 1.907039, "dry_up": 0.904066, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01658, "annualized_volatility": 0.086217, "from_high_reference": -0.062392, "from_low_reference": 0.013012 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.452323, "fair_value_reference": 96.504912, "structural_low": 95.80345, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.017957, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.652174, "median_excess_return": -0.006585, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.109795, "worst_return": -0.079959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.009071, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.033326, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.130766, "worst_return": -0.16928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0325, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.057834, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.028518, "worst_return": -0.135448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 6541683.85, "trend": 99.680516, "fair_value": 96.463236, "relative_strength": -10.115119, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.18698, "energy": 58.438081, "activity_lines": [ 98.092369, 98.684276, 98.874736, 99.248188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 96.162041, "volume": 7418969, "typical_volume": 6089565.35, "trend": 99.564707, "fair_value": 96.478295, "relative_strength": -11.437982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.361491, "energy": 73.666363, "activity_lines": [ 97.254414, 98.198143, 98.601821, 99.021189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 97.05, "volume": 6483455, "typical_volume": 5996701.5, "trend": 99.452323, "fair_value": 96.504912, "relative_strength": -13.319625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.14573, "energy": 70.04362, "activity_lines": [ 97.025796, 97.906268, 98.429171, 98.85895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }