{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03d14e5f-0c7f-4d3d-acf7-513ee11f289b", "symbol": "PFAA", "name": "PICTON Multi-Strategy Alpha Alternative Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.544, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.553, "architecture_energy": 19.252, "architecture_maturity": 40.77, "architecture_confidence": 78.174, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.32, "rotation_up": 19.09, "upward_expansion": 51.1, "deceleration": 92.68, "rotation_down": 35.19, "downward_expansion": 19.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.170682, 12.197019, 12.182802, 12.162159 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.17, "trend_reference": 12.151466, "distance_from_trend": 0.001525, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.359844, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.859969, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.001691, "excess_performance": -0.11873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001525, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002668, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009644, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1086, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004147, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001691, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.51412, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121800, "relative_activity": 2.719053, "balance": 2.51412, "dry_up": 1.487331, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00744, "annualized_volatility": 0.033221, "from_high_reference": -0.011448, "from_low_reference": 0.02914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.151466, "fair_value_reference": 11.359844, "structural_low": 11.904848, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.00138, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01828, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.014168, "worst_return": -0.01546, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.002658, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.050705, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.004397, "worst_return": 0.000919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.005321, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.102583, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005321, "worst_return": 0.005321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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12.113462, "fair_value": 11.13175, "relative_strength": -11.897222, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.966631, "energy": 9.623428, "activity_lines": [ 12.098991, 12.085027, 12.113744, 12.118783 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "close": 12.014158, "volume": 38500, "typical_volume": 61220.0, "trend": 12.113057, "fair_value": 11.146079, "relative_strength": -11.618357, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.069771, "energy": 19.392681, "activity_lines": [ 12.073205, 12.070561, 12.102285, 12.112376 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 12.063846, "volume": 48900, "typical_volume": 60680.0, "trend": 12.113324, "fair_value": 11.160296, "relative_strength": -11.27469, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.859514, "energy": 21.977816, "activity_lines": [ 12.063225, 12.068147, 12.096048, 12.109201 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 12.123468, "volume": 42400, "typical_volume": 61565.0, "trend": 12.114594, "fair_value": 11.175203, "relative_strength": -9.769301, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.486268, "energy": 22.775585, "activity_lines": [ 12.077661, 12.078869, 12.09593, 12.109856 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 12.111568, "volume": 30800, "typical_volume": 62235.0, "trend": 12.116516, "fair_value": 11.190162, "relative_strength": -11.072014, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.648495, "energy": 14.057517, "activity_lines": [ 12.087702, 12.086747, 12.094821, 12.109661 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 12.201284, "volume": 118000, "typical_volume": 63315.0, "trend": 12.11913, "fair_value": 11.205819, "relative_strength": -10.752455, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.22014, "energy": 14.129345, "activity_lines": [ 12.130996, 12.10948, 12.102409, 12.11513 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 12.241158, "volume": 8300, "typical_volume": 60395.0, "trend": 12.126358, "fair_value": 11.221855, "relative_strength": -9.128339, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.190805, "energy": 30.561501, "activity_lines": [ 12.177094, 12.135657, 12.113992, 12.123002 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 12.251126, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 57625.0, "trend": 12.132933, "fair_value": 11.237955, "relative_strength": -9.997512, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.149067, "energy": 43.952053, "activity_lines": [ 12.211381, 12.159311, 12.126577, 12.131052 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 12.250899, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 55225.0, "trend": 12.140025, "fair_value": 11.253395, "relative_strength": -9.644577, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.292517, "energy": 55.819789, "activity_lines": [ 12.233107, 12.180758, 12.13908, 12.138663 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.269837, "volume": 14800, "typical_volume": 54300.0, "trend": 12.144463, "fair_value": 11.269202, "relative_strength": -9.11955, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.56929, "energy": 68.002202, "activity_lines": [ 12.252651, 12.203215, 12.153046, 12.147038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.229968, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 51490.0, "trend": 12.148229, "fair_value": 11.284816, "relative_strength": -9.696194, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.357376, "energy": 59.871145, "activity_lines": [ 12.248353, 12.216458, 12.162642, 12.152554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.229968, "volume": 34500, "typical_volume": 50545.0, "trend": 12.151995, "fair_value": 11.300306, "relative_strength": -9.416398, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.858109, "energy": 50.391808, "activity_lines": [ 12.242143, 12.226319, 12.171712, 12.157827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.180131, "volume": 58600, "typical_volume": 49640.0, "trend": 12.152785, "fair_value": 11.315471, "relative_strength": -9.265525, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.701356, "energy": 28.904663, "activity_lines": [ 12.220067, 12.223195, 12.1758, 12.159643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.2, "volume": 39300, "typical_volume": 45025.0, "trend": 12.154336, "fair_value": 11.33064, "relative_strength": -8.990987, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.453227, "energy": 22.688249, "activity_lines": [ 12.209347, 12.22157, 12.181826, 12.162689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.13, "volume": 46800, "typical_volume": 44520.0, "trend": 12.153884, "fair_value": 11.345176, "relative_strength": -8.689603, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.011915, "energy": 17.099005, "activity_lines": [ 12.178686, 12.205825, 12.180644, 12.161119 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.17, "volume": 121800, "typical_volume": 44795.0, "trend": 12.151466, "fair_value": 11.359844, "relative_strength": -10.859969, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.553339, "energy": 19.251794, "activity_lines": [ 12.170682, 12.197019, 12.182802, 12.162159 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }