{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03d6cef8-a887-423c-840c-0c97dadc79ec", "symbol": "IBDS", "name": "ISHARES TRUST IBONDS DEC 2027 TERM CORPORATE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.037, "architecture_energy": 66.64, "architecture_maturity": 32.455, "architecture_confidence": 72.641, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.36, "rotation_up": 65.73, "upward_expansion": 85.65, "deceleration": 48.78, "rotation_down": 17.21, "downward_expansion": 12.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.118796, 24.103773, 24.082354, 24.058225 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.16, "trend_reference": 24.023291, "distance_from_trend": 0.005691, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.655127, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066425, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.887413, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007962, "excess_performance": -0.117663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005691, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004535, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066425, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007285, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000514, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007962, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.588327, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2758458, "relative_activity": 0.944545, "balance": 2.588327, "dry_up": 0.930231, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001997, "annualized_volatility": 0.010417, "from_high_reference": -0.000617, "from_low_reference": 0.035546 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.023291, "fair_value_reference": 22.655127, "structural_low": 23.904286, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.003661, "positive_rate": 0.710526, "directional_follow_through": 0.710526, "median_excess_return": -0.014164, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.014475, "worst_return": -0.012367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.012281, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.050452, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.036869, "worst_return": -0.004634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024484, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.091334, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.042141, "worst_return": 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"fair_value": 22.611339, "relative_strength": -6.553696, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.035138, "energy": 30.710502, "activity_lines": [ 24.083928, 24.084287, 24.064339, 24.041678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.115134, "volume": 2255802, "typical_volume": 2893726.9, "trend": 24.013484, "fair_value": 22.632749, "relative_strength": -7.197015, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.194199, "energy": 42.415041, "activity_lines": [ 24.093211, 24.090638, 24.071641, 24.048773 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.16, "volume": 2758458, "typical_volume": 2920408.8, "trend": 24.023291, "fair_value": 22.655127, "relative_strength": -9.887413, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.036667, "energy": 66.640233, "activity_lines": [ 24.118796, 24.103773, 24.082354, 24.058225 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }