{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03e66be4-fc60-46e1-a207-3e6894691be5", "symbol": "688021", "name": "Aofu Environmental Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.24, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.971, "architecture_energy": 65.652, "architecture_maturity": 13.082, "architecture_confidence": 86.187, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.89, "rotation_up": 14.18, "upward_expansion": 13.9, "deceleration": 40.6, "rotation_down": 66.38, "downward_expansion": 87.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.776, 19.399917, 21.5986, 22.633883 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.620001, "trend_reference": 23.260831, "distance_from_trend": -0.113531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.580096, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.040005, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076165, "excess_performance": -0.032961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113531, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014487, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.24366, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.433076, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0304, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.358317, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076165, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.255097, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8619398, "relative_activity": 0.865825, "balance": 0.255097, "dry_up": 0.867958, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127186, "annualized_volatility": 0.597122, "from_high_reference": -0.361016, "from_low_reference": 0.325193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.260831, "fair_value_reference": 16.580096, "structural_low": 15.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.034549, "positive_rate": 0.310345, "directional_follow_through": 0.689655, "median_excess_return": -0.02351, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.255319, "worst_return": -0.446322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.040158, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.080573, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.355839, "worst_return": -0.364353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.042217, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024764, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.253774, "worst_return": -0.547021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 17.85, "volume": 8131035, "typical_volume": 12279779.6, "trend": 23.243498, "fair_value": 16.729839, "relative_strength": -12.031022, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.955954, "energy": 67.792086, "activity_lines": [ 19.624666, 21.008382, 23.126337, 23.538431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.879999, "volume": 10186704, "typical_volume": 12281088.75, "trend": 23.191831, "fair_value": 16.669006, "relative_strength": -17.90138, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.920097, "energy": 75.788196, "activity_lines": [ 18.549333, 19.982259, 22.420552, 23.127882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.1, "volume": 7625393, "typical_volume": 11354109.05, "trend": 23.185165, "fair_value": 16.615096, "relative_strength": -12.389014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.934561, "energy": 78.809767, "activity_lines": [ 18.183333, 19.379296, 21.86629, 22.799377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.620001, "volume": 8619398, "typical_volume": 9955130.65, "trend": 23.260831, "fair_value": 16.580096, "relative_strength": -3.040005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.971478, "energy": 65.651767, "activity_lines": [ 18.776, 19.399917, 21.5986, 22.633883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }