{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03ecac8c-63f6-4dab-a04b-b0e4969ba0d5", "symbol": "300542", "name": "Brilliance Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.959, "architecture_energy": 53.987, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.777, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.68, "rotation_up": 27.34, "upward_expansion": 21.32, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 49.93, "downward_expansion": 73.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.492667, 11.440364, 12.458524, 13.505548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.06, "trend_reference": 15.076333, "distance_from_trend": -0.200071, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.546599, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.271149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.81238, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.338816, "excess_performance": -0.346216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138954, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.271149, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225135, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020091, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.338816, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.563595, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28489839, "relative_activity": 1.296622, "balance": 0.563595, "dry_up": 1.492537, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086299, "annualized_volatility": 0.382014, "from_high_reference": -0.541445, "from_low_reference": 0.167473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.076333, "fair_value_reference": 16.546599, "structural_low": 10.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.079902, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.023103, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.436031, "worst_return": -0.181941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.128322, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.168162, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.119234, "worst_return": -0.30794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.296638, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.201162, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.788512, "worst_return": -0.275281, "sufficient": true 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24798649, "typical_volume": 19463173.2, "trend": 16.209, "fair_value": 16.555804, "relative_strength": -45.231398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.337149, "energy": 91.001876, "activity_lines": [ 11.383333, 12.125636, 13.511952, 14.653075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.8, "volume": 24760695, "typical_volume": 19950327.55, "trend": 15.94, "fair_value": 16.548713, "relative_strength": -40.441392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.023607, "energy": 89.52488, "activity_lines": [ 11.124667, 11.727818, 13.147905, 14.304108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.57, "volume": 42535607, "typical_volume": 20910392.35, "trend": 15.620333, "fair_value": 16.541171, "relative_strength": -40.876469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.116103, "energy": 79.810519, "activity_lines": [ 10.880667, 11.379091, 12.799286, 13.957656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.91, "volume": 35392075, "typical_volume": 21761261.3, "trend": 15.357333, "fair_value": 16.5419, "relative_strength": -31.246412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.689047, "energy": 64.652301, "activity_lines": [ 11.188, 11.369455, 12.610286, 13.71828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.06, "volume": 28489839, "typical_volume": 21972349.4, "trend": 15.076333, "fair_value": 16.546599, "relative_strength": -32.81238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.958566, "energy": 53.987074, "activity_lines": [ 11.492667, 11.440364, 12.458524, 13.505548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }