{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03ef05f0-4733-480b-bd1c-a0eec7fea284", "symbol": "XCHP", "name": "iShares Semiconductor Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.455, "architecture_energy": 28.061, "architecture_maturity": 77.495, "architecture_confidence": 89.615, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.12, "rotation_up": 19.12, "upward_expansion": 54.44, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 34.91, "downward_expansion": 20.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 128.834669, 134.368136, 131.64734, 121.905922 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 131.690002, "trend_reference": 109.179007, "distance_from_trend": 0.206184, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.709738, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.035088, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 29.391656, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.592767, "excess_performance": 0.472346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.206184, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.248558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.035088, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091838, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.293917, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255796, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.592767, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.477753, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145300, "relative_activity": 0.917443, "balance": 0.477753, "dry_up": 1.62352, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094963, "annualized_volatility": 0.425846, "from_high_reference": -0.178097, "from_low_reference": 1.310351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 109.179007, "fair_value_reference": 64.709738, "structural_low": 74.440002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.2482, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.151484, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2482, "worst_return": 0.2482, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.960819, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.844222, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.960819, "worst_return": 0.960819, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045838, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029693, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008781, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.380594, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.17254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.283445, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0222, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 38.68, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 37.330002, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ 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120.341814 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 131.690002, "volume": 145300, "typical_volume": 158375.0, "trend": 109.179007, "fair_value": 64.709738, "relative_strength": 29.391656, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.454804, "energy": 28.060938, "activity_lines": [ 128.834669, 134.368136, 131.64734, 121.905922 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }