{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03f24d46-035e-448a-bb5d-23e9ac7d9863", "symbol": "ZSC", "name": "USCF ETF TRUST USCF SUSTAINABLE COMMODITY STRATEGY FUND", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.814, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.686, "architecture_energy": 23.94, "architecture_maturity": 18.4, "architecture_confidence": 65.031, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.08, "rotation_up": 48.45, "upward_expansion": 66.89, "deceleration": 54.65, "rotation_down": 20.13, "downward_expansion": 12.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.118813, 30.006644, 30.077205, 29.894261 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.0723, "trend_reference": 29.62011, "distance_from_trend": 0.015266, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.906783, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207394, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.390939, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.06734, "excess_performance": -0.058285, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015266, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031534, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207394, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090009, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06734, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.703715, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 362, "relative_activity": 0.208016, "balance": 2.703715, "dry_up": 1.157736, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021501, "annualized_volatility": 0.108228, "from_high_reference": -0.046532, "from_low_reference": 0.28446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.62011, "fair_value_reference": 24.906783, "structural_low": 27.77, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.009406, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.048264, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.022484, "worst_return": -0.003671, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.055005, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.050807, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055005, "worst_return": 0.055005, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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20.146587, "activity_lines": [ 30.000733, 29.987487, 30.015302, 29.781004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.5477, "volume": 1005, "typical_volume": 1758.35, "trend": 29.52737, "fair_value": 24.864763, "relative_strength": 1.83626, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.352123, "energy": 33.255029, "activity_lines": [ 30.227113, 30.06476, 30.08275, 29.852439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.69, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 1746.35, "trend": 29.5867, "fair_value": 24.895694, "relative_strength": -2.203608, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.946965, "energy": 23.462609, "activity_lines": [ 30.11708, 29.990402, 30.06257, 29.862932 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.0723, "volume": 362, "typical_volume": 1740.25, "trend": 29.62011, "fair_value": 24.906783, "relative_strength": -4.390939, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.686083, "energy": 23.939815, "activity_lines": [ 30.118813, 30.006644, 30.077205, 29.894261 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }