{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03f3445c-82f5-4d2b-a944-f450a58aa77e", "symbol": "688466", "name": "GreenTech Environmental Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.594, "architecture_energy": 57.41, "architecture_maturity": 54.911, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 23.69, "upward_expansion": 10.02, "deceleration": 59.59, "rotation_down": 57.0, "downward_expansion": 83.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.752667, 12.934421, 14.347923, 15.260483 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.47, "trend_reference": 16.268802, "distance_from_trend": -0.172035, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.715833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.6312, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228964, "excess_performance": -0.18576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172035, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096696, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326716, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151812, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228964, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.270664, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6528839, "relative_activity": 1.065368, "balance": 0.270664, "dry_up": 1.250592, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101329, "annualized_volatility": 0.354267, "from_high_reference": -0.500926, "from_low_reference": 0.201606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.268802, "fair_value_reference": 15.715833, "structural_low": 11.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.014041, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.011753, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.15273, "worst_return": -0.1305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.025878, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035714, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.292098, "worst_return": -0.260543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.044077, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01249, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.423016, "worst_return": -0.231139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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16.813136, "fair_value": 15.801884, "relative_strength": -32.094282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.087135, "energy": 90.224605, "activity_lines": [ 13.18194, 14.291081, 15.673096, 16.281077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.6, "volume": 7623990, "typical_volume": 6426776.95, "trend": 16.646136, "fair_value": 15.782484, "relative_strength": -28.451896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.244954, "energy": 88.553988, "activity_lines": [ 12.889746, 13.781007, 15.293696, 16.009262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.7, "volume": 9395324, "typical_volume": 6320944.9, "trend": 16.477802, "fair_value": 15.754605, "relative_strength": -33.687791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.008623, "energy": 85.407499, "activity_lines": [ 12.434738, 13.218388, 14.858581, 15.690156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.71, "volume": 7107586, "typical_volume": 6322712.6, "trend": 16.362136, "fair_value": 15.732648, "relative_strength": -27.698119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.693056, "energy": 64.855857, "activity_lines": [ 12.465343, 12.95795, 14.553467, 15.447072 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.47, "volume": 6528839, "typical_volume": 6128244.85, "trend": 16.268802, "fair_value": 15.715833, "relative_strength": -24.6312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.594165, "energy": 57.410001, "activity_lines": [ 12.752667, 12.934421, 14.347923, 15.260483 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }