{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03f5558a-8e99-404e-99e5-ed141becf0e8", "symbol": "JALL3", "name": "Jalles Machado S/A", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.376, "architecture_energy": 77.155, "architecture_maturity": 52.926, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.01, "rotation_up": 28.34, "upward_expansion": 17.42, "deceleration": 41.16, "rotation_down": 56.71, "downward_expansion": 90.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.026403, 2.073531, 2.354043, 2.575213 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.03, "trend_reference": 2.797616, "distance_from_trend": -0.274382, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.05615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.598509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.801649, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.32107, "excess_performance": -0.264022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.274382, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082949, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.598509, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163489, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308016, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122425, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.32107, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.127074, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3675700, "relative_activity": 0.823448, "balance": 0.127074, "dry_up": 1.013942, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081014, "annualized_volatility": 0.38201, "from_high_reference": -0.467192, "from_low_reference": 0.041026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.797616, "fair_value_reference": 5.05615, "structural_low": 1.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.012969, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.024822, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.162722, "worst_return": -0.201681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.005317, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.057765, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.112426, "worst_return": -0.284314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.023937, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.133517, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.336045, "worst_return": -0.383459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.621029, "energy": 89.686349, "activity_lines": [ 2.037249, 2.144203, 2.488743, 2.677916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.05, "volume": 4349700, "typical_volume": 4558280.0, "trend": 2.823616, "fair_value": 5.092595, "relative_strength": -33.147327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.92648, "energy": 82.141634, "activity_lines": [ 2.032772, 2.103867, 2.420084, 2.626414 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.03, "volume": 3675700, "typical_volume": 4463790.0, "trend": 2.797616, "fair_value": 5.05615, "relative_strength": -30.801649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.376102, "energy": 77.154982, "activity_lines": [ 2.026403, 2.073531, 2.354043, 2.575213 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }