{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "03f77069-fe21-4bad-ba4d-7be2005caada",
    "symbol": "VEGN",
    "name": "US VEGAN CLIMATE ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 45.661,
    "architecture_energy": 29.715,
    "architecture_maturity": 70.497,
    "architecture_confidence": 89.545,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 30.07,
        "rotation_up": 30.18,
        "upward_expansion": 60.64,
        "deceleration": 88.3,
        "rotation_down": 27.8,
        "downward_expansion": 21.97
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        76.32546,
        77.066845,
        75.473317,
        72.065807
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 77.7499,
    "trend_reference": 67.980189,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.143714,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 53.227012,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.460723,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 8.229601,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.282579,
    "excess_performance": 0.156954,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.143714,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.09205,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.460723,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.01631,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.082296,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011302,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.282579,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.820817,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 27139,
      "relative_activity": 1.009356,
      "balance": 0.820817,
      "dry_up": 1.110286,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.050326,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.228142,
      "from_high_reference": -0.055918,
      "from_low_reference": 0.424734
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 67.980189,
      "fair_value_reference": 53.227012,
      "structural_low": 54.571519,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.022509,
        "positive_rate": 0.692308,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.692308,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001185,
        "regime_survival": 0.384615,
        "best_return": 0.127729,
        "worst_return": -0.097155,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.037796,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006871,
        "regime_survival": 0.125,
        "best_return": 0.159451,
        "worst_return": -0.148982,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.164547,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012232,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.302033,
        "worst_return": -0.027979,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.09674,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000395,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.383656,
        "worst_return": -0.239314,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.028722,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.108063,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.087769,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019945,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.050812,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.021561,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006404,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.003965,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.01611,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.008521,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-10",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.026032,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.116667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.035975,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 20737.4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 31577.9,
        "trend": 60.112831,
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 31553.35,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 26591.55,
        "trend": 61.246772,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 26732.7,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 27162.6,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 75.461375,
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        "typical_volume": 28461.25,
        "trend": 62.786132,
        "fair_value": 50.960183,
        "relative_strength": 13.39224,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 29109.05,
        "trend": 63.428142,
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        "relative_strength": 16.801833,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 64.818029,
        "fair_value": 51.761248,
        "relative_strength": 17.919704,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.870787,
        "energy": 67.230869,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 27353.25,
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        "fair_value": 52.019696,
        "relative_strength": 14.2904,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 29424.45,
        "trend": 66.020736,
        "fair_value": 52.277738,
        "relative_strength": 14.258311,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 65.083673,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 75.35,
        "volume": 39368,
        "typical_volume": 27260.75,
        "trend": 66.519717,
        "fair_value": 52.509902,
        "relative_strength": 9.926495,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.991765,
        "energy": 54.687912,
        "activity_lines": [
          77.76662,
          77.746808,
          73.804,
          70.315254
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 75.2906,
        "volume": 24746,
        "typical_volume": 27118.1,
        "trend": 66.983188,
        "fair_value": 52.739369,
        "relative_strength": 10.209253,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.166406,
        "energy": 41.823903,
        "activity_lines": [
          76.710933,
          77.432692,
          74.370317,
          70.881117
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 75.05,
        "volume": 28158,
        "typical_volume": 27223.2,
        "trend": 67.454024,
        "fair_value": 52.973026,
        "relative_strength": 8.407374,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.954659,
        "energy": 32.26491,
        "activity_lines": [
          75.94972,
          77.015785,
          74.833695,
          71.401556
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 77.7499,
        "volume": 27139,
        "typical_volume": 26887.45,
        "trend": 67.980189,
        "fair_value": 53.227012,
        "relative_strength": 8.229601,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.661453,
        "energy": 29.715158,
        "activity_lines": [
          76.32546,
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          72.065807
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}