{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03fa5dcb-a3b7-42f5-a8b0-7de3fb9c540a", "symbol": "AQLT", "name": "ISHARES MSCI GLOBAL QUALITY FACTOR ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.222, "architecture_energy": 46.125, "architecture_maturity": 36.207, "architecture_confidence": 71.229, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.24, "rotation_up": 48.38, "upward_expansion": 76.79, "deceleration": 63.36, "rotation_down": 25.79, "downward_expansion": 5.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.467713, 31.319784, 31.056055, 30.530427 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.3376, "trend_reference": 29.944379, "distance_from_trend": 0.079922, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.872671, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203364, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.43463, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102758, "excess_performance": -0.022866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079922, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039889, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203364, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01935, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004346, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008904, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102758, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.75119, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78696, "relative_activity": 0.54053, "balance": 1.75119, "dry_up": 0.766515, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027288, "annualized_volatility": 0.161392, "from_high_reference": -0.001309, "from_low_reference": 0.270353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.944379, "fair_value_reference": 26.872671, "structural_low": 26.554462, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.010526, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005906, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.010526, "worst_return": -0.010526, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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66.662935, "energy": 46.600264, "activity_lines": [ 31.293005, 31.173014, 30.581706, 30.110891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.02, "volume": 93427, "typical_volume": 142524.25, "trend": 29.641846, "fair_value": 26.710844, "relative_strength": 0.37792, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.497597, "energy": 40.743059, "activity_lines": [ 31.22984, 31.158416, 30.687452, 30.206578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.8179, "volume": 189409, "typical_volume": 148487.4, "trend": 29.726774, "fair_value": 26.759162, "relative_strength": 0.268412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.497912, "energy": 34.257604, "activity_lines": [ 31.098193, 31.105292, 30.767342, 30.282453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.056, "volume": 84857, "typical_volume": 144755.35, "trend": 29.823216, "fair_value": 26.809125, "relative_strength": -0.097942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.183822, "energy": 30.214587, "activity_lines": [ 31.081387, 31.094789, 30.858131, 30.368209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.3376, "volume": 78696, "typical_volume": 145590.45, "trend": 29.944379, "fair_value": 26.872671, "relative_strength": 0.43463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.222242, "energy": 46.125241, "activity_lines": [ 31.467713, 31.319784, 31.056055, 30.530427 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }