{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03fc920e-f758-4a08-9087-47e2cae1c605", "symbol": "CAE", "name": "CAE Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.621, "architecture_energy": 3.295, "architecture_maturity": 11.995, "architecture_confidence": 74.553, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.88, "rotation_up": 24.4, "upward_expansion": 29.42, "deceleration": 46.0, "rotation_down": 24.1, "downward_expansion": 44.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.420666, 36.165091, 35.826286, 36.300151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 37.93, "trend_reference": 37.725, "distance_from_trend": 0.005434, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.965962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150581, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.391786, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110877, "excess_performance": -0.231298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005434, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036128, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150581, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013458, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035632, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110877, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.144377, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3470400, "relative_activity": 0.926804, "balance": 1.144377, "dry_up": 1.111229, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053946, "annualized_volatility": 0.305741, "from_high_reference": -0.203987, "from_low_reference": 0.207193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.725, "fair_value_reference": 32.965962, "structural_low": 31.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.035108, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": 0.028835, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.119581, "worst_return": -0.326495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.020343, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001015, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.351479, "worst_return": -0.218782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.083159, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.170144, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.042708, "worst_return": -0.280087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.042733, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040133, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.504142, "worst_return": -0.278901, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019782, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04497, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.239442, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.062291, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095699, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057171, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060782, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121425, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041638, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084044, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033979, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 32.07, "volume": 3794600, "typical_volume": 2625530.0, "trend": 29.881, "fair_value": 31.217885, "relative_strength": 15.158524, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"fair_value": 32.84609, "relative_strength": -19.168363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.980286, "energy": 20.666437, "activity_lines": [ 35.713334, 35.573455, 35.625905, 36.625807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.509998, "volume": 4484500, "typical_volume": 3845970.0, "trend": 38.202667, "fair_value": 32.885, "relative_strength": -16.704718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.591041, "energy": 19.506149, "activity_lines": [ 35.608666, 35.615454, 35.577905, 36.436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.16, "volume": 4305500, "typical_volume": 3781760.0, "trend": 37.993, "fair_value": 32.925769, "relative_strength": -14.259898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.486887, "energy": 18.676616, "activity_lines": [ 35.719333, 35.767091, 35.614381, 36.304215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.93, "volume": 3470400, "typical_volume": 3744480.0, "trend": 37.725, "fair_value": 32.965962, "relative_strength": -12.391786, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.621417, "energy": 3.294506, "activity_lines": [ 36.420666, 36.165091, 35.826286, 36.300151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }