{ "ticker": { "uuid": "03ff0181-a2b9-4205-a0ab-dbf5239a8f38", "symbol": "4031", "name": "Saudi Ground Services Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -87.408, "architecture_energy": 94.646, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.298, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 8.16, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 88.08, "downward_expansion": 99.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.144, 28.583636, 29.928667, 30.691957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 25.92, "trend_reference": 31.922, "distance_from_trend": -0.188021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.323131, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.372748, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.522442, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.274356, "excess_performance": -0.242527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092644, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.372748, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079776, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.274356, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.566581, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3035441, "relative_activity": 1.280253, "balance": 0.566581, "dry_up": 0.849185, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05609, "annualized_volatility": 0.213624, "from_high_reference": -0.456376, "from_low_reference": 0.028571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.922, "fair_value_reference": 41.323131, "structural_low": 25.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.012697, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": -0.012307, "regime_survival": 0.903226, "best_return": 0.206009, "worst_return": -0.150883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.047378, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023574, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.544527, "worst_return": -0.206896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.126587, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.079602, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.662848, "worst_return": -0.19798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 27.799999, "volume": 2006346, "typical_volume": 2269386.6, "trend": 32.577334, "fair_value": 41.393135, "relative_strength": -23.614534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.367087, "energy": 85.68061, "activity_lines": [ 28.990666, 30.001454, 30.84019, 31.45957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.02, "volume": 1327661, "typical_volume": 2242640.7, "trend": 32.260667, "fair_value": 41.356078, "relative_strength": -23.478895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.778265, "energy": 91.259465, "activity_lines": [ 28.106666, 29.353454, 30.426476, 31.101032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.92, "volume": 3035441, "typical_volume": 2370969.15, "trend": 31.922, "fair_value": 41.323131, "relative_strength": -27.522442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.408144, "energy": 94.645948, "activity_lines": [ 27.144, 28.583636, 29.928667, 30.691957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }