{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04078b03-3515-4e02-b87b-ae05b7039735", "symbol": "5863", "name": "Taipei Star Bank", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 48.531, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.973, "architecture_energy": 19.547, "architecture_maturity": 49.864, "architecture_confidence": 47.071, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.58, "rotation_up": 50.73, "upward_expansion": 43.68, "deceleration": 25.66, "rotation_down": 23.89, "downward_expansion": 21.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.266667, 11.175455, 11.065238, 11.110645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.35, "trend_reference": 11.236667, "distance_from_trend": 0.010086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.020836, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055806, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.454058, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.029915, "excess_performance": -0.471287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020485, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055806, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046313, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304541, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08466, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029915, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.889257, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 304099, "relative_activity": 1.055825, "balance": 1.889257, "dry_up": 1.124332, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056591, "annualized_volatility": 0.168566, "from_high_reference": -0.095618, "from_low_reference": 0.091346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.236667, "fair_value_reference": 12.020836, "structural_low": 10.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.009132, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -3e-05, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.033195, "worst_return": -0.043668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007572, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022848, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.029703, "worst_return": -0.054054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.008064, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.032239, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.029703, "worst_return": -0.064198, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -30.442807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.922434, "energy": 6.253855, "activity_lines": [ 11.066667, 11.024545, 10.989762, 11.103763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.35, "volume": 588547, "typical_volume": 302462.1, "trend": 11.266667, "fair_value": 12.007264, "relative_strength": -28.064712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.241241, "energy": 6.623489, "activity_lines": [ 11.16, 11.092727, 11.018333, 11.10828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.2, "volume": 148958, "typical_volume": 302077.25, "trend": 11.246667, "fair_value": 12.01342, "relative_strength": -29.829469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.144453, "energy": 10.804239, "activity_lines": [ 11.193333, 11.123636, 11.033571, 11.103978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.35, "volume": 304099, "typical_volume": 288020.4, "trend": 11.236667, "fair_value": 12.020836, "relative_strength": -30.454058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.97335, "energy": 19.547162, "activity_lines": [ 11.266667, 11.175455, 11.065238, 11.110645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }