{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0407b86e-86a3-49e2-bc1f-730c40b3f52a", "symbol": "002530", "name": "JC Finance & Tax Interconnect Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.419, "architecture_energy": 54.15, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.145, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 28.37, "upward_expansion": 9.49, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 50.46, "downward_expansion": 82.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.956667, 6.964545, 7.458144, 7.932603 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.24, "trend_reference": 8.657896, "distance_from_trend": -0.163769, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.006804, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196163, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.23244, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.30188, "excess_performance": -0.309279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110142, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196163, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209728, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272324, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005604, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.30188, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.476689, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137926289, "relative_activity": 2.102786, "balance": 0.476689, "dry_up": 1.357752, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077454, "annualized_volatility": 0.324467, "from_high_reference": -0.462189, "from_low_reference": 0.147385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.657896, "fair_value_reference": 9.006804, "structural_low": 6.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.012642, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.010643, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.55303, "worst_return": -0.146023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.061212, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.041368, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.04894, "worst_return": -0.233604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061644, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.075747, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.977953, "worst_return": -0.375793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.18, "volume": 80116711, "typical_volume": 62252214.7, "trend": 8.774883, "fair_value": 9.013897, "relative_strength": -24.811663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.730846, "energy": 64.92648, "activity_lines": [ 6.812667, 6.944909, 7.528047, 8.031628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.24, "volume": 137926289, "typical_volume": 65592177.75, "trend": 8.657896, "fair_value": 9.006804, "relative_strength": -27.23244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.41938, "energy": 54.150486, "activity_lines": [ 6.956667, 6.964545, 7.458144, 7.932603 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }