{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0408a42d-5744-4a9b-a3f7-75958c2b575f", "symbol": "BBVA", "name": "Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.361, "architecture_energy": 94.511, "architecture_maturity": 34.651, "architecture_confidence": 79.162, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 84.06, "upward_expansion": 97.37, "deceleration": 41.94, "rotation_down": 9.79, "downward_expansion": 21.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.712, 22.919727, 21.593238, 20.787572 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.75, "trend_reference": 20.070718, "distance_from_trend": 0.23314, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.277703, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.015849, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.659447, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.256688, "excess_performance": 0.082441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.23314, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064603, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.015849, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.27566, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.086594, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100484, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.256688, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.545879, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2270, "relative_activity": 0.228738, "balance": 2.545879, "dry_up": 0.808167, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039285, "annualized_volatility": 0.318577, "from_high_reference": -0.004825, "from_low_reference": 0.70739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.070718, "fair_value_reference": 12.277703, "structural_low": 16.862436, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.037292, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.019644, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.155216, "worst_return": -0.163208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.136275, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.081648, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.2358, "worst_return": -0.148094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.253325, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.090062, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.331144, "worst_return": -0.020645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.307099, "energy": 90.228138, "activity_lines": [ 22.458667, 21.821364, 20.747457, 20.188803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.190001, "volume": 14381, "typical_volume": 11185.35, "trend": 19.904788, "fair_value": 12.156472, "relative_strength": 9.716201, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.112306, "energy": 93.398831, "activity_lines": [ 23.080667, 22.363273, 21.159802, 20.474977 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.75, "volume": 2270, "typical_volume": 9924.0, "trend": 20.070718, "fair_value": 12.277703, "relative_strength": 8.659447, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.36144, "energy": 94.511186, "activity_lines": [ 23.712, 22.919727, 21.593238, 20.787572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }