{ "ticker": { "uuid": "040bab5f-3567-4a79-8e5e-b39468d3ecf8", "symbol": "DLTR", "name": "Dollar Tree, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.362, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.37, "architecture_energy": 60.705, "architecture_maturity": 26.297, "architecture_confidence": 66.553, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.08, "rotation_up": 72.22, "upward_expansion": 85.27, "deceleration": 55.17, "rotation_down": 13.97, "downward_expansion": 9.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.761334, 108.768546, 101.470667, 99.280903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 112.620003, "trend_reference": 99.081, "distance_from_trend": 0.136646, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 93.808333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200533, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.407622, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070736, "excess_performance": -0.103511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.136646, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016765, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200533, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.353655, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211086, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070736, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.669583, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057894, "annualized_volatility": 0.430514, "from_high_reference": -0.075521, "from_low_reference": 0.552951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.081, "fair_value_reference": 93.808333, "structural_low": 73.839996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, 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"2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066282, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.092838, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103743, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.243212, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018889, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.341374, "energy": 73.277048, "activity_lines": [ 106.360666, 100.955091, 95.235048, 96.198022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 114.099998, "volume": 102, "typical_volume": 85.3, "trend": 98.911667, "fair_value": 94.32282, "relative_strength": -0.290778, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.85844, "energy": 78.551634, "activity_lines": [ 109.641332, 104.32509, 97.162619, 97.191763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.900002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 84.75, "trend": 99.026334, "fair_value": 94.114487, "relative_strength": -8.278438, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.441175, "energy": 67.437982, "activity_lines": [ 109.151999, 105.614364, 98.27, 97.642624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.919998, "volume": 97, "typical_volume": 85.25, "trend": 99.120334, "fair_value": 93.950513, "relative_strength": -3.460479, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.280757, "energy": 60.332155, "activity_lines": [ 109.759999, 107.30309, 99.822428, 98.409957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.620003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 74.3, "trend": 99.081, "fair_value": 93.808333, "relative_strength": -4.407622, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.37002, "energy": 60.704999, "activity_lines": [ 110.761334, 108.768546, 101.470667, 99.280903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }