{ "ticker": { "uuid": "040c3cab-ed51-4441-94f8-8e220c0014e7", "symbol": "AUHEUA", "name": "UBS MSCI Australia UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.109, "architecture_energy": 85.656, "architecture_maturity": 12.665, "architecture_confidence": 58.817, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.88, "rotation_up": 85.83, "upward_expansion": 95.73, "deceleration": 39.09, "rotation_down": 8.77, "downward_expansion": 17.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.962, 23.700637, 23.477143, 23.376344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 24.594999, "trend_reference": 23.239833, "distance_from_trend": 0.058312, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.356776, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151625, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.619207, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079675, "excess_performance": -0.091217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058312, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017112, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151625, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034286, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015911, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079675, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.775091, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6767, "relative_activity": 1.573666, "balance": 2.775091, "dry_up": 0.873574, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016279, "annualized_volatility": 0.141849, "from_high_reference": -0.00061, "from_low_reference": 0.123572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.239833, "fair_value_reference": 21.356776, "structural_low": 22.155001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.001662, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.014281, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.048792, "worst_return": -0.042322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007469, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.055063, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.06401, "worst_return": -0.099664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028268, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.065704, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.095196, "worst_return": -0.112752, "sufficient": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.651226, "energy": 50.454091, "activity_lines": [ 23.416, 23.305, 23.253333, 23.207667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.565001, "volume": 6377, "typical_volume": 4205.05, "trend": 23.118167, "fair_value": 21.28334, "relative_strength": -9.910471, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.116731, "energy": 55.758556, "activity_lines": [ 23.479334, 23.373818, 23.28981, 23.238452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.825001, "volume": 1578, "typical_volume": 4261.45, "trend": 23.1645, "fair_value": 21.31759, "relative_strength": -9.188836, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.460736, "energy": 65.265323, "activity_lines": [ 23.611334, 23.475546, 23.349405, 23.284054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.594999, "volume": 6767, "typical_volume": 4300.15, "trend": 23.239833, "fair_value": 21.356776, "relative_strength": -8.619207, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.108666, "energy": 85.656384, "activity_lines": [ 23.962, 23.700637, 23.477143, 23.376344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }