{ "ticker": { "uuid": "040e52b2-8a48-456d-96d3-9d1dbe0f0945", "symbol": "URB", "name": "Urbana Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 91.686, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.33, "architecture_energy": 28.728, "architecture_maturity": 21.369, "architecture_confidence": 57.532, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.88, "rotation_up": 20.23, "upward_expansion": 14.07, "deceleration": 60.22, "rotation_down": 44.27, "downward_expansion": 64.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.914, 8.902364, 9.107571, 9.195226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.12, "trend_reference": 9.304333, "distance_from_trend": -0.019812, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.472223, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.409099, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.432112, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043022, "excess_performance": -0.163443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019812, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00507, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.409099, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151921, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112865, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043022, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.687117, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8200, "relative_activity": 0.863612, "balance": 2.687117, "dry_up": 0.439705, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049089, "annualized_volatility": 0.25373, "from_high_reference": -0.159101, "from_low_reference": 0.342509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.304333, "fair_value_reference": 6.472223, "structural_low": 8.34, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036364, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.00205, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.072658, "worst_return": -0.017721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.09542, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043745, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.18481, "worst_return": 0.039473, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.199436, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.171406, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231579, "worst_return": 0.167293, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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11.699469, "activity_lines": [ 9.464667, 9.485455, 9.45581, 9.455554 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 8.74, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 10385.0, "trend": 9.387361, "fair_value": 6.278298, "relative_strength": -7.68542, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.681937, "energy": 25.308029, "activity_lines": [ 9.204, 9.354909, 9.390667, 9.414392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 8.61, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 10080.0, "trend": 9.393692, "fair_value": 6.310038, "relative_strength": -9.77901, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.344132, "energy": 60.856295, "activity_lines": [ 8.958, 9.214545, 9.316905, 9.364239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.8, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 10270.0, "trend": 9.404384, "fair_value": 6.342997, "relative_strength": -7.970944, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.056665, "energy": 62.37057, "activity_lines": [ 8.862667, 9.118182, 9.263095, 9.325937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.67, "volume": 3600, "typical_volume": 10190.0, "trend": 9.398582, "fair_value": 6.375061, "relative_strength": -9.212628, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.49617, "energy": 71.484847, "activity_lines": [ 8.756667, 9.005273, 9.200571, 9.278557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.91, "volume": 3800, "typical_volume": 9650.0, "trend": 9.389278, "fair_value": 6.407274, "relative_strength": -7.008942, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.199754, "energy": 63.255046, "activity_lines": [ 8.772667, 8.949273, 9.164286, 9.247036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.81, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 9410.0, "trend": 9.343775, "fair_value": 6.438664, "relative_strength": -7.651607, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.671306, "energy": 48.334898, "activity_lines": [ 8.794, 8.890364, 9.119524, 9.209663 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.12, "volume": 8200, "typical_volume": 9495.0, "trend": 9.304333, "fair_value": 6.472223, "relative_strength": -7.432112, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.329948, "energy": 28.728086, "activity_lines": [ 8.914, 8.902364, 9.107571, 9.195226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }