{ "ticker": { "uuid": "041031df-5d42-49f9-a37d-25069eb818a1", "symbol": "HAL", "name": "Halliburton Company", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.803, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.751, "architecture_energy": 52.746, "architecture_maturity": 16.076, "architecture_confidence": 68.126, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.69, "rotation_up": 19.55, "upward_expansion": 17.85, "deceleration": 48.12, "rotation_down": 64.55, "downward_expansion": 57.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.676, 29.359636, 31.060128, 31.343083 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.01, "trend_reference": 31.155301, "distance_from_trend": -0.100956, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.290247, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026374, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.410745, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04221, "excess_performance": -0.106849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100956, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074629, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026374, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223791, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.453543, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04221, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.251687, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2802, "relative_activity": 0.191582, "balance": 0.251687, "dry_up": 0.336858, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072394, "annualized_volatility": 0.371372, "from_high_reference": -0.245925, "from_low_reference": 0.62841 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.155301, "fair_value_reference": 27.290247, "structural_low": 27.030001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.009262, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.023399, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.077954, "worst_return": -0.128927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.064178, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.006575, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.198585, "worst_return": -0.171813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.411119, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.25844, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.704132, "worst_return": -0.093289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009262, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139084, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05634, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.247919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127501, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058052, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.604927, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086134, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 33.731319, "volume": 2046, "typical_volume": 2435.45, "trend": 29.255284, "fair_value": 22.937453, "relative_strength": 6.660921, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"typical_volume": 16686.6, "trend": 30.84186, "fair_value": 27.38625, "relative_strength": 12.935207, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.012708, "energy": 50.666425, "activity_lines": [ 29.919333, 31.115391, 32.200603, 31.858101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.219999, "volume": 7669, "typical_volume": 15907.4, "trend": 31.030369, "fair_value": 27.368036, "relative_strength": 5.770088, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.813923, "energy": 52.35565, "activity_lines": [ 29.711333, 30.568258, 31.900264, 31.753465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.8, "volume": 4159, "typical_volume": 15406.9, "trend": 31.140541, "fair_value": 27.331323, "relative_strength": -1.990102, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.266074, "energy": 50.136435, "activity_lines": [ 29.094, 29.874648, 31.465679, 31.545054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.01, "volume": 2802, "typical_volume": 14625.6, "trend": 31.155301, "fair_value": 27.290247, "relative_strength": -4.410745, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.750986, "energy": 52.74553, "activity_lines": [ 28.676, 29.359636, 31.060128, 31.343083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }