{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04123e67-2ca1-45ff-8e35-85f8b2c22708", "symbol": "SKYW", "name": "SkyWest Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.46, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 53.993, "architecture_energy": 68.931, "architecture_maturity": 24.064, "architecture_confidence": 64.839, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.81, "rotation_up": 74.53, "upward_expansion": 64.31, "deceleration": 21.5, "rotation_down": 17.24, "downward_expansion": 22.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 106.147333, 102.122364, 96.347476, 95.111527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 111.84, "trend_reference": 95.1185, "distance_from_trend": 0.175797, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 85.747917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304288, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.798685, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.055493, "excess_performance": -0.131961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.175797, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008907, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304288, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215007, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017987, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.262883, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055493, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.677641, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1987692, "relative_activity": 0.985734, "balance": 2.677641, "dry_up": 1.173171, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068733, "annualized_volatility": 0.387584, "from_high_reference": -0.097628, "from_low_reference": 0.435871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.1185, "fair_value_reference": 85.747917, "structural_low": 77.89, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05652, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.039869, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.124123, "worst_return": -0.040816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.129921, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.194842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.514301, "worst_return": -0.198639, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.09923, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.232714, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.270912, "worst_return": -0.461224, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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43.453282, "activity_lines": [ 97.794667, 94.547909, 91.770262, 92.618871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 103.65, "volume": 3016975, "typical_volume": 2027968.2, "trend": 94.553833, "fair_value": 84.884327, "relative_strength": -4.77232, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.901077, "energy": 54.533754, "activity_lines": [ 99.96, 96.780909, 92.99519, 93.207656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 106.97, "volume": 2637182, "typical_volume": 2056870.35, "trend": 94.746167, "fair_value": 85.300288, "relative_strength": -1.757579, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.335934, "energy": 61.612722, "activity_lines": [ 102.497333, 99.210273, 94.480976, 94.008699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.84, "volume": 1987692, "typical_volume": 2016459.8, "trend": 95.1185, "fair_value": 85.747917, "relative_strength": -1.798685, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.992814, "energy": 68.930813, "activity_lines": [ 106.147333, 102.122364, 96.347476, 95.111527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }