{ "ticker": { "uuid": "041537aa-d894-47a7-b08c-c1229cd2d51c", "symbol": "MBK", "name": "Merkur PrivatBank KgaA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.339, "architecture_energy": 56.626, "architecture_maturity": 82.089, "architecture_confidence": 92.936, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.35, "rotation_up": 27.44, "upward_expansion": 9.82, "deceleration": 60.17, "rotation_down": 55.54, "downward_expansion": 85.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.786667, 11.938182, 12.960952, 14.084516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.2, "trend_reference": 15.543333, "distance_from_trend": -0.150761, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.211062, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13221, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.518788, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.297872, "excess_performance": -0.362512, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150761, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120686, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13221, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058903, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.297872, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.994003, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7073, "relative_activity": 3.388507, "balance": 0.994003, "dry_up": 1.864206, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096737, "annualized_volatility": 0.445181, "from_high_reference": -0.394495, "from_low_reference": 0.306931 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.543333, "fair_value_reference": 15.211062, "structural_low": 10.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.028533, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.025779, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.125926, "worst_return": -0.146853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013699, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.032856, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.100775, "worst_return": -0.308642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023513, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.088127, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164012, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013699, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013605, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083916, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.205948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057143, "active": false }, { 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15.313722, "relative_strength": -33.780787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.139859, "energy": 65.993616, "activity_lines": [ 13.193333, 13.727273, 15.00381, 15.903656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.2, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 1310.0, "trend": 16.703333, "fair_value": 15.304242, "relative_strength": -34.08473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.168963, "energy": 69.758893, "activity_lines": [ 12.753333, 13.343636, 14.633333, 15.59871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.2, "volume": 2951, "typical_volume": 1456.55, "trend": 16.473333, "fair_value": 15.281144, "relative_strength": -37.369744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.592731, "energy": 87.813686, "activity_lines": [ 12.093333, 12.861818, 14.19619, 15.243656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.2, "volume": 5927, "typical_volume": 1752.9, "trend": 16.25, "fair_value": 15.260449, "relative_strength": -36.325893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.154528, "energy": 88.439353, "activity_lines": [ 11.64, 12.472727, 13.794286, 14.903441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.2, "volume": 1879, "typical_volume": 1846.85, "trend": 16.01, "fair_value": 15.238552, "relative_strength": -36.508088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.899076, "energy": 84.966527, "activity_lines": [ 11.373333, 12.134545, 13.427143, 14.577634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.9, "volume": 686, "typical_volume": 1881.15, "trend": 15.733333, "fair_value": 15.217735, "relative_strength": -38.935306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.633945, "energy": 79.833724, "activity_lines": [ 11.166667, 11.798182, 13.066667, 14.247957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.2, "volume": 7073, "typical_volume": 2087.35, "trend": 15.543333, "fair_value": 15.211062, "relative_strength": -27.518788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.338767, "energy": 56.626364, "activity_lines": [ 11.786667, 11.938182, 12.960952, 14.084516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }