{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "041f59c1-8437-429a-bfcf-75d764e4b497",
    "symbol": "ACWN",
    "name": "A.S. Cr\u00e9ation Tapeten AG",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 79.187,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 0.471,
    "architecture_energy": 5.24,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.895,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.443,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 62.04,
        "rotation_up": 20.44,
        "upward_expansion": 55.31,
        "deceleration": 84.32,
        "rotation_down": 34.87,
        "downward_expansion": 23.65
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        7.45,
        7.546364,
        7.542801,
        7.476813
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 7.05,
    "trend_reference": 7.427624,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.05084,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 8.105938,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130267,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -13.533897,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.040552,
    "excess_performance": -0.105191,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05084,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001219,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.130267,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013988,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.135339,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.096866,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.040552,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.778412,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4972,
      "relative_activity": 2.410433,
      "balance": 0.778412,
      "dry_up": 2.050347,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.045237,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.249372,
      "from_high_reference": -0.186908,
      "from_low_reference": 0.042879
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 7.427624,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.105938,
      "structural_low": 6.760135,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.000676,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014431,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.105263,
        "worst_return": -0.04083,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.031646,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.074369,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.145455,
        "worst_return": -0.248731,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.185084,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.221205,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.081818,
        "worst_return": -0.333564,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.269036,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.43686,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": -0.0625,
        "worst_return": -0.302422,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-04-12",
        "end": "2024-05-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.083333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-05-31",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.015228,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.342105,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.101449,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.006667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02027,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.026144,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.057325,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.054054,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.094937,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.06338,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -26.063925,
        "energy": 17.774846,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.279392,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 7.396959,
        "volume": 123,
        "typical_volume": 2468.6,
        "trend": 7.529223,
        "fair_value": 8.519566,
        "relative_strength": -0.297554,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -21.665143,
        "energy": 19.040877,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 7.494932,
        "volume": 135,
        "typical_volume": 2116.6,
        "trend": 7.524324,
        "fair_value": 8.496015,
        "relative_strength": -0.178536,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -11.857093,
        "energy": 16.754194,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.413288,
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          7.368305
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 788,
        "typical_volume": 2103.05,
        "trend": 7.511261,
        "fair_value": 8.47215,
        "relative_strength": -3.847345,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "direction": -13.59336,
        "energy": 14.460775,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.370833,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 7.5,
        "volume": 4507,
        "typical_volume": 2143.5,
        "trend": 7.490203,
        "fair_value": 8.442979,
        "relative_strength": 0.900043,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -2.719932,
        "energy": 9.732401,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 10,
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        "trend": 7.465912,
        "fair_value": 8.412244,
        "relative_strength": -2.347245,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 2.499918,
        "energy": 12.627339,
        "activity_lines": [
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          7.353738
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 505,
        "typical_volume": 1663.6,
        "trend": 7.436689,
        "fair_value": 8.381189,
        "relative_strength": -3.857687,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 15.607468,
        "energy": 18.420196,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 7.45,
        "volume": 722,
        "typical_volume": 1404.95,
        "trend": 7.405799,
        "fair_value": 8.349814,
        "relative_strength": -3.144737,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 14.163327,
        "energy": 24.247963,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.476667,
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          7.351615,
          7.356796
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 7.8,
        "volume": 811,
        "typical_volume": 1260.75,
        "trend": 7.396374,
        "fair_value": 8.319426,
        "relative_strength": 1.91497,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 41.75462,
        "energy": 45.148593,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 1,
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        "trend": 7.400045,
        "fair_value": 8.289986,
        "relative_strength": 1.158789,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.841361,
        "energy": 63.352412,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 40,
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        "trend": 7.403682,
        "fair_value": 8.266506,
        "relative_strength": 1.730586,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.556664,
        "energy": 74.533887,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.746667,
          7.637942,
          7.484607,
          7.437298
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 7.35,
        "volume": 7503,
        "typical_volume": 1401.5,
        "trend": 7.39232,
        "fair_value": 8.239514,
        "relative_strength": -8.123722,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.324043,
        "energy": 51.966233,
        "activity_lines": [
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          7.599908,
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          7.433835
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 7.5,
        "volume": 1673,
        "typical_volume": 1385.55,
        "trend": 7.400653,
        "fair_value": 8.212227,
        "relative_strength": -3.574665,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.674085,
        "energy": 26.183786,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.586667,
          7.59,
          7.49385,
          7.440782
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 7.95,
        "volume": 7306,
        "typical_volume": 1721.05,
        "trend": 7.425619,
        "fair_value": 8.187197,
        "relative_strength": 3.057139,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.679871,
        "energy": 38.130948,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.683333,
          7.661818,
          7.547392,
          7.476223
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 7.9,
        "volume": 374,
        "typical_volume": 1694.7,
        "trend": 7.430957,
        "fair_value": 8.161846,
        "relative_strength": 1.244352,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.258044,
        "energy": 37.703292,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.753333,
          7.711818,
          7.593772,
          7.506829
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 7.35,
        "volume": 4265,
        "typical_volume": 1880.9,
        "trend": 7.43429,
        "fair_value": 8.134225,
        "relative_strength": -7.611407,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.242642,
        "energy": 18.853769,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.636667,
          7.654545,
          7.58351,
          7.501606
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 7.05,
        "volume": 4972,
        "typical_volume": 2062.7,
        "trend": 7.427624,
        "fair_value": 8.105938,
        "relative_strength": -13.533897,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 0.471234,
        "energy": 5.240108,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.45,
          7.546364,
          7.542801,
          7.476813
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}