{ "ticker": { "uuid": "042d2ea0-1161-41b5-9b3e-0b3781521244", "symbol": "605377", "name": "Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.688, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.561, "architecture_energy": 3.733, "architecture_maturity": 12.155, "architecture_confidence": 85.444, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.84, "rotation_up": 35.08, "upward_expansion": 30.75, "deceleration": 39.07, "rotation_down": 25.02, "downward_expansion": 19.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.093333, 8.998727, 9.010653, 9.049794 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.03, "trend_reference": 9.006556, "distance_from_trend": 0.002603, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.558171, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.678206, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.044912, "excess_performance": 0.088116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002603, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018203, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144738, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026782, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013706, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044912, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.590386, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25852422, "relative_activity": 0.687039, "balance": 0.590386, "dry_up": 1.3209, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097557, "annualized_volatility": 0.421156, "from_high_reference": -0.135885, "from_low_reference": 0.212207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.006556, "fair_value_reference": 10.558171, "structural_low": 7.62, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.008397, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.040978, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.108933, "worst_return": -0.13969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.03591, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.016883, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.150152, "worst_return": -0.102606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.10027, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.047945, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031385, "worst_return": -0.12609, 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0131, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080086, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072815, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030501, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", 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after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.939704, "energy": 18.947305, "activity_lines": [ 9.298667, 8.967068, 9.050646, 9.058043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.8, "volume": 41431895, "typical_volume": 38988779.8, "trend": 8.983842, "fair_value": 10.575308, "relative_strength": 2.763812, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.435074, "energy": 13.362379, "activity_lines": [ 9.162667, 8.960582, 9.016954, 9.046816 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.03, "volume": 25852422, "typical_volume": 37628742.95, "trend": 9.006556, "fair_value": 10.558171, "relative_strength": 2.678206, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.561288, "energy": 3.73332, "activity_lines": [ 9.093333, 8.998727, 9.010653, 9.049794 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }