{ "ticker": { "uuid": "042d8b8f-a7f3-4f65-97aa-32c8d31e45a6", "symbol": "RPAD5", "name": "Alfa Holdings S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.209, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.607, "architecture_energy": 26.05, "architecture_maturity": 48.221, "architecture_confidence": 84.09, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.22, "rotation_up": 25.23, "upward_expansion": 59.41, "deceleration": 87.36, "rotation_down": 34.65, "downward_expansion": 23.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.833333, 6.895455, 6.869381, 6.754624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.78, "trend_reference": 6.626, "distance_from_trend": 0.023242, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.68645, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.013991, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.534913, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.095315, "excess_performance": 0.152363, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023242, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021887, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.013991, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015041, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025349, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107589, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095315, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.52, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 0.035149, "balance": 3.52, "dry_up": 0.026362, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019741, "annualized_volatility": 0.210437, "from_high_reference": -0.082777, "from_low_reference": 0.204323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.626, "fair_value_reference": 6.68645, "structural_low": 5.8, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010465, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.004177, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.110047, "worst_return": -0.078947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.102284, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040309, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181025, "worst_return": 0.021229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003111, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.065174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263554, "worst_return": -0.079323, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.121635, 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"2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118881, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154587, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026562, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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6.88, 6.802545, 6.600143, 6.539245 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 6.87, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 3165.0, "trend": 6.45627, "fair_value": 6.622442, "relative_strength": -3.176413, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.692957, "energy": 50.690416, "activity_lines": [ 6.883333, 6.835455, 6.63481, 6.565051 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 7.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3140.0, "trend": 6.501946, "fair_value": 6.632021, "relative_strength": 0.462417, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.979874, "energy": 47.659946, "activity_lines": [ 6.923333, 6.882364, 6.682, 6.60013 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 7.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2985.0, "trend": 6.532996, "fair_value": 6.641193, "relative_strength": -1.91384, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.354748, "energy": 51.219888, "activity_lines": [ 6.943333, 6.917455, 6.727333, 6.632263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2980.0, "trend": 6.571825, "fair_value": 6.649855, "relative_strength": -2.162132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.083944, "energy": 60.77544, "activity_lines": [ 6.973333, 6.939818, 6.76881, 6.662392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2970.0, "trend": 6.601941, "fair_value": 6.656834, "relative_strength": -3.72954, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.785179, "energy": 65.344045, "activity_lines": [ 6.991333, 6.953091, 6.806476, 6.690016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 2925.0, "trend": 6.604981, "fair_value": 6.66575, "relative_strength": -0.998476, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.5545, "energy": 60.752792, "activity_lines": [ 7.0, 6.968182, 6.840476, 6.715698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2920.0, "trend": 6.608333, "fair_value": 6.674565, "relative_strength": -0.929871, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.039449, "energy": 55.148531, "activity_lines": [ 7.0, 6.979091, 6.871143, 6.741183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.65, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 2850.0, "trend": 6.613333, "fair_value": 6.681136, "relative_strength": -7.595392, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.792844, "energy": 23.744752, "activity_lines": [ 6.883333, 6.920909, 6.865143, 6.743871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.78, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 2845.0, "trend": 6.626, "fair_value": 6.68645, "relative_strength": -2.534913, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.606999, "energy": 26.050147, "activity_lines": [ 6.833333, 6.895455, 6.869381, 6.754624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }