{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04464062-5fcb-4205-bfa0-fe9c5144a006", "symbol": "TITN", "name": "Titan Machinery Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 74.608, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.205, "architecture_energy": 15.851, "architecture_maturity": 10.2, "architecture_confidence": 49.727, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.67, "rotation_up": 19.65, "upward_expansion": 20.25, "deceleration": 58.42, "rotation_down": 45.14, "downward_expansion": 36.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.66, 19.061273, 19.706238, 19.478903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.09, "trend_reference": 19.042333, "distance_from_trend": 0.002503, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.504968, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.136775, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.026344, "excess_performance": -0.16111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002503, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067515, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021275, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080128, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026344, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976074, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 828722, "relative_activity": 0.947438, "balance": 0.976074, "dry_up": 1.038111, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144877, "annualized_volatility": 0.617149, "from_high_reference": -0.2364, "from_low_reference": 0.445117 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.042333, "fair_value_reference": 19.504968, "structural_low": 13.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.036492, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.021759, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.199648, "worst_return": -0.207469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.058435, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215784, "worst_return": -0.233762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.056428, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.014997, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.535371, "worst_return": -0.402835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.336094, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.118439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122816, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038021, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007927, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", 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19.505204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.34, "volume": 683206, "typical_volume": 887625.3, "trend": 18.556667, "fair_value": 19.904776, "relative_strength": -12.830815, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.673864, "energy": 13.351486, "activity_lines": [ 20.074667, 20.460364, 20.088333, 19.496387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.27, "volume": 779007, "typical_volume": 878527.65, "trend": 18.622667, "fair_value": 19.817083, "relative_strength": -14.098185, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.986199, "energy": 14.264926, "activity_lines": [ 19.272667, 20.03, 19.966476, 19.477892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.14, "volume": 758682, "typical_volume": 880121.2, "trend": 18.73, "fair_value": 19.743686, "relative_strength": -5.659229, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.903496, "energy": 15.35814, "activity_lines": [ 19.088, 19.811455, 19.937667, 19.511269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.98, "volume": 756766, "typical_volume": 880284.15, "trend": 18.882, "fair_value": 19.669263, "relative_strength": 0.506317, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.896716, "energy": 15.048499, "activity_lines": [ 19.258, 19.789455, 19.990524, 19.591914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.99, "volume": 1287966, "typical_volume": 911524.0, "trend": 18.949667, "fair_value": 19.574263, "relative_strength": -14.464721, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.731487, "energy": 28.173269, "activity_lines": [ 18.478, 19.219091, 19.749429, 19.469849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.09, "volume": 828722, "typical_volume": 874698.3, "trend": 19.042333, "fair_value": 19.504968, "relative_strength": -8.136775, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.20508, "energy": 15.851274, "activity_lines": [ 18.66, 19.061273, 19.706238, 19.478903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }