{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0449b686-bd82-4795-a11f-eeefdb7552fa", "symbol": "544", "name": "CSE Global Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.858, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.22, "architecture_energy": 30.011, "architecture_maturity": 8.479, "architecture_confidence": 52.897, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.66, "rotation_up": 17.52, "upward_expansion": 18.63, "deceleration": 56.22, "rotation_down": 54.08, "downward_expansion": 43.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.215333, 1.246, 1.334512, 1.331083 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.26, "trend_reference": 1.300295, "distance_from_trend": -0.030989, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.644452, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.955151, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.921324, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136771, "excess_performance": -0.018064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030989, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095895, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.955151, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.802254, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019213, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.636212, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136771, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.197432, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37173800, "relative_activity": 0.769716, "balance": 1.197432, "dry_up": 1.102801, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148962, "annualized_volatility": 0.564987, "from_high_reference": -0.340314, "from_low_reference": 1.088534 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.300295, "fair_value_reference": 0.644452, "structural_low": 1.11, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.034, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.028398, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057472, "worst_return": 0.010528, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.012944, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014953, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031581, "worst_return": -0.057469, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.271638, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.187265, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.511695, "worst_return": 0.031581, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.792136, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.628512, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.546434, "worst_return": 0.037837, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029063, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11628, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011764, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034484, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108694, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035295, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055557, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.500248, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055555, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109489, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.137405, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032787, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.405038, "volume": 10033900, "typical_volume": 6461480.0, "trend": 0.318592, "fair_value": 0.355364, "relative_strength": 31.221929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.315758, "energy": 76.66948, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.217283, "energy": 15.986835, "activity_lines": [ 1.296667, 1.384545, 1.393814, 1.351558 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.13, "volume": 51135200, "typical_volume": 49658630.0, "trend": 1.277583, "fair_value": 0.628606, "relative_strength": -7.504591, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.20131, "energy": 33.823515, "activity_lines": [ 1.231333, 1.325273, 1.371193, 1.342488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.22, "volume": 66783300, "typical_volume": 48463365.0, "trend": 1.286581, "fair_value": 0.63379, "relative_strength": -2.111936, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.232965, "energy": 35.647186, "activity_lines": [ 1.208, 1.289818, 1.357982, 1.338772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.2, "volume": 57949000, "typical_volume": 48230545.0, "trend": 1.292603, "fair_value": 0.638956, "relative_strength": -4.912876, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.89487, "energy": 39.629777, "activity_lines": [ 1.198, 1.257818, 1.343231, 1.333187 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.26, "volume": 37173800, "typical_volume": 48295485.0, "trend": 1.300295, "fair_value": 0.644452, "relative_strength": -1.921324, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.219602, "energy": 30.011373, "activity_lines": [ 1.215333, 1.246, 1.334512, 1.331083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }