{ "ticker": { "uuid": "044a4e42-41b3-4a4c-8c18-eb08fee87d4a", "symbol": "DBAG34", "name": "Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.988, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 52.593, "architecture_energy": 49.105, "architecture_maturity": 26.932, "architecture_confidence": 65.027, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.28, "rotation_up": 60.63, "upward_expansion": 54.07, "deceleration": 38.12, "rotation_down": 25.58, "downward_expansion": 14.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 185.732667, 183.149636, 174.519382, 170.692924 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 193.229996, "trend_reference": 171.021371, "distance_from_trend": 0.129859, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 122.010178, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.58372, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.546763, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.026085, "excess_performance": 0.083133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129859, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032074, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.58372, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.220242, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025468, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.298862, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026085, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.673189, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1988, "relative_activity": 1.252717, "balance": 3.673189, "dry_up": 1.14197, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048618, "annualized_volatility": 0.33373, "from_high_reference": -0.107752, "from_low_reference": 0.357663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 171.021371, "fair_value_reference": 122.010178, "structural_low": 142.3255, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000632, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000699, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.110729, "worst_return": -0.047157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053991, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.121328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.312297, "worst_return": 0.030743, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048575, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.07941, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163779, "worst_return": -0.248633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 122.010178, "relative_strength": 2.546763, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.593093, "energy": 49.104695, "activity_lines": [ 185.732667, 183.149636, 174.519382, 170.692924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }