{ "ticker": { "uuid": "044c1dfd-e306-4c80-b936-5b6aaaf4fd12", "symbol": "MAU", "name": "Etablissements Maurel & Prom S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.046, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.754, "architecture_energy": 28.633, "architecture_maturity": 19.112, "architecture_confidence": 80.297, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.2, "rotation_up": 32.09, "upward_expansion": 23.0, "deceleration": 68.78, "rotation_down": 41.7, "downward_expansion": 41.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.079667, 8.057818, 8.539405, 8.792129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.895, "trend_reference": 8.73, "distance_from_trend": -0.095647, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.71113, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.382389, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.487853, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.144203, "excess_performance": 0.090892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095647, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134454, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.382389, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.435784, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034879, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.501243, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144203, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.814401, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1381913, "relative_activity": 1.460822, "balance": 0.814401, "dry_up": 1.15061, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077995, "annualized_volatility": 0.518944, "from_high_reference": -0.309878, "from_low_reference": 0.786199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.73, "fair_value_reference": 5.71113, "structural_low": 6.83, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.006508, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.009084, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.157107, "worst_return": -0.198944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.168493, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.169126, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.426696, "worst_return": -0.185362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.060081, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.028494, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.126915, "worst_return": -0.14494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033192, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080865, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.113872, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007505, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057229, "active": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.635327, "energy": 68.477199, "activity_lines": [ 7.793667, 8.207273, 8.831595, 8.863084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.605, "volume": 1169425, "typical_volume": 1051148.6, "trend": 8.5855, "fair_value": 5.653502, "relative_strength": 18.905669, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.399438, "energy": 49.250052, "activity_lines": [ 8.055667, 8.200727, 8.765762, 8.87228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.115, "volume": 910910, "typical_volume": 977087.75, "trend": 8.666833, "fair_value": 5.683141, "relative_strength": 9.563127, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.694879, "energy": 32.138506, "activity_lines": [ 8.118333, 8.132818, 8.656857, 8.841925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.895, "volume": 1381913, "typical_volume": 945983.25, "trend": 8.73, "fair_value": 5.71113, "relative_strength": 3.487853, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.753954, "energy": 28.632789, "activity_lines": [ 8.079667, 8.057818, 8.539405, 8.792129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }