{ "ticker": { "uuid": "044f91c3-5106-4d88-9d30-f3ef47fd7b62", "symbol": "002140", "name": "East China Engineering Science and Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.814, "architecture_energy": 65.113, "architecture_maturity": 62.131, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 28.42, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.24, "rotation_down": 55.7, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.891333, 9.026709, 9.694958, 10.394763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.12, "trend_reference": 11.146112, "distance_from_trend": -0.181777, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.399056, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02969, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.612555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2704, "excess_performance": -0.2778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181777, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06428, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02969, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262718, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2704, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.282476, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34630767, "relative_activity": 1.024174, "balance": 0.282476, "dry_up": 0.950432, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057938, "annualized_volatility": 0.345498, "from_high_reference": -0.412371, "from_low_reference": 0.07929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.146112, "fair_value_reference": 9.399056, "structural_low": 8.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.007475, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.013967, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.184663, "worst_return": -0.071685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.030421, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.047419, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.258195, "worst_return": -0.100295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032942, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.027305, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.250331, "worst_return": -0.202504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -84.695864, "energy": 93.207262, "activity_lines": [ 9.223079, 9.565485, 10.527212, 11.041851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.74, "volume": 26803965, "typical_volume": 48489719.6, "trend": 11.39256, "fair_value": 9.397129, "relative_strength": -23.055351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.933191, "energy": 90.290297, "activity_lines": [ 9.008626, 9.349777, 10.277911, 10.865682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.5, "volume": 38105161, "typical_volume": 44869226.65, "trend": 11.300843, "fair_value": 9.395544, "relative_strength": -25.077145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.606686, "energy": 88.804301, "activity_lines": [ 8.786667, 9.140998, 10.024942, 10.679065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.99, "volume": 29009248, "typical_volume": 38490353.5, "trend": 11.215835, "fair_value": 9.396667, "relative_strength": -19.14542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.645917, "energy": 66.761801, "activity_lines": [ 8.808, 9.060663, 9.841355, 10.529978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.12, "volume": 34630767, "typical_volume": 33813351.85, "trend": 11.146112, "fair_value": 9.399056, "relative_strength": -21.612555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.814471, "energy": 65.112974, "activity_lines": [ 8.891333, 9.026709, 9.694958, 10.394763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }