{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04580837-c0d3-4abc-b3ad-0c5b22de8ed1", "symbol": "EVN", "name": "EVN AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.809, "architecture_energy": 20.809, "architecture_maturity": 42.7, "architecture_confidence": 50.863, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.27, "rotation_up": 41.59, "upward_expansion": 66.89, "deceleration": 58.43, "rotation_down": 21.81, "downward_expansion": 10.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.316666, 29.343636, 29.151428, 28.938293 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.85, "trend_reference": 28.6029, "distance_from_trend": 0.008639, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.736688, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.159188, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022498, "excess_performance": -0.151748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008639, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094183, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022498, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.847691, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 183377, "relative_activity": 1.198397, "balance": 0.847691, "dry_up": 1.14102, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040528, "annualized_volatility": 0.179819, "from_high_reference": -0.052545, "from_low_reference": 0.319499 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.6029, "fair_value_reference": 24.736688, "structural_low": 26.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.007371, "positive_rate": 0.594595, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.001338, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.195122, "worst_return": -0.102174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.031421, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000515, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.189956, "worst_return": -0.157265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.130526, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.023926, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.285012, "worst_return": -0.152921, 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3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.348869, "energy": 32.461193, "activity_lines": [ 29.226666, 29.120909, 28.902143, 28.667569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.4, "volume": 166381, "typical_volume": 172451.25, "trend": 28.329082, "fair_value": 24.538841, "relative_strength": -7.032174, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.749415, "energy": 28.321676, "activity_lines": [ 29.243333, 29.190909, 28.968571, 28.740877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.25, "volume": 209343, "typical_volume": 166859.15, "trend": 28.459932, "fair_value": 24.609812, "relative_strength": -5.530372, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.869127, "energy": 40.526157, "activity_lines": [ 29.553333, 29.409091, 29.112619, 28.864807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.299999, "volume": 139288, "typical_volume": 160656.45, "trend": 28.551036, "fair_value": 24.675263, "relative_strength": -8.30229, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.495136, "energy": 28.207921, "activity_lines": [ 29.516666, 29.42, 29.156428, 28.919005 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.85, "volume": 183377, "typical_volume": 153018.6, "trend": 28.6029, "fair_value": 24.736688, "relative_strength": -12.159188, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.809333, "energy": 20.808906, "activity_lines": [ 29.316666, 29.343636, 29.151428, 28.938293 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }