{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0478bc58-76fc-4e40-adf4-095d34f52de7", "symbol": "FAAN", "name": "Leverage Shares FAANG+ ETP", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.642, "architecture_energy": 29.352, "architecture_maturity": 36.835, "architecture_confidence": 45.633, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.91, "rotation_up": 45.18, "upward_expansion": 63.08, "deceleration": 63.67, "rotation_down": 26.01, "downward_expansion": 17.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.814, 50.634818, 50.752952, 50.078312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.299999, "trend_reference": 49.310333, "distance_from_trend": 0.06063, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.984558, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308005, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.860992, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.076132, "excess_performance": -0.09476, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06063, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003235, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308005, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006468, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076132, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.504132, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60, "relative_activity": 0.890869, "balance": 4.504132, "dry_up": 1.109874, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029769, "annualized_volatility": 0.262483, "from_high_reference": -0.026796, "from_low_reference": 0.181921 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.310333, "fair_value_reference": 39.984558, "structural_low": 44.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.027809, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.024421, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.021049, "worst_return": -0.052469, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.082788, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.08832, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.082788, "worst_return": -0.082788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.004029, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.168109, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.004029, "worst_return": -0.004029, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129407, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077275, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111649, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073815, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064659, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010109, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042014, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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50.326619, 49.658333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.049999, "volume": 118, "typical_volume": 60.3, "trend": 49.237333, "fair_value": 39.766458, "relative_strength": -6.843191, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.708957, "energy": 31.393259, "activity_lines": [ 50.905666, 50.998091, 50.579952, 49.84458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.990002, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 58.8, "trend": 49.276166, "fair_value": 39.843862, "relative_strength": -8.449165, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.046676, "energy": 38.419353, "activity_lines": [ 51.037667, 50.946818, 50.703762, 49.957656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.07, "volume": 111, "typical_volume": 64.35, "trend": 49.223666, "fair_value": 39.900205, "relative_strength": -13.955104, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.758254, "energy": 10.670967, "activity_lines": [ 50.175, 50.358273, 50.528143, 49.879839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.299999, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 67.35, "trend": 49.310333, "fair_value": 39.984558, "relative_strength": -8.860992, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.642065, "energy": 29.352417, "activity_lines": [ 50.814, 50.634818, 50.752952, 50.078312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }