{ "ticker": { "uuid": "047b9646-6ba9-4e32-bec0-a1d96f59e54e", "symbol": "2705", "name": "Leofoo Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 62.483, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.658, "architecture_energy": 12.173, "architecture_maturity": 16.212, "architecture_confidence": 57.541, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.87, "rotation_up": 20.45, "upward_expansion": 13.76, "deceleration": 55.26, "rotation_down": 32.24, "downward_expansion": 56.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.16, 16.210909, 16.112381, 16.176882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.049999, "trend_reference": 16.25, "distance_from_trend": -0.012308, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.547115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08532, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.483602, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.015337, "excess_performance": -0.456709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012308, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008441, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08532, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06782, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314836, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089981, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015337, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.579272, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 341511, "relative_activity": 0.317399, "balance": 1.579272, "dry_up": 0.477265, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036185, "annualized_volatility": 0.176815, "from_high_reference": -0.118132, "from_low_reference": 0.077181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.25, "fair_value_reference": 17.547115, "structural_low": 14.9, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.005666, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.027344, "regime_survival": 0.565217, "best_return": 0.226519, "worst_return": -0.087404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.032934, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.048738, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.118785, "worst_return": -0.07455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014085, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.12644, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146893, "worst_return": -0.113111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.04524, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.277924, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.008475, "worst_return": -0.154242, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.204955, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028329, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011019, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042254, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045198, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029891, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100529, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.017804, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053892, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031977, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04717, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006192, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 18.6, "volume": 7301894, "typical_volume": 25915735.15, "trend": 19.403333, "fair_value": 18.366667, "relative_strength": -5.311229, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"down", "direction": -12.372733, "energy": 16.57291, "activity_lines": [ 16.29, 15.966364, 16.140714, 16.220645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.15, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1177802.55, "trend": 16.313333, "fair_value": 17.704167, "relative_strength": -34.800008, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.842452, "energy": 19.942487, "activity_lines": [ 16.296667, 16.016364, 16.132143, 16.209032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 733343, "typical_volume": 1163488.8, "trend": 16.301667, "fair_value": 17.658333, "relative_strength": -29.518631, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.458354, "energy": 16.5176, "activity_lines": [ 16.29, 16.084546, 16.128572, 16.201721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.35, "volume": 697009, "typical_volume": 1145006.75, "trend": 16.291667, "fair_value": 17.623397, "relative_strength": -29.56621, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.717444, "energy": 12.570973, "activity_lines": [ 16.296667, 16.174546, 16.139524, 16.204839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.15, "volume": 603803, "typical_volume": 1124052.0, "trend": 16.276667, "fair_value": 17.59359, "relative_strength": -28.653433, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.71193, "energy": 7.832692, "activity_lines": [ 16.246667, 16.208182, 16.130714, 16.195699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 411765, "typical_volume": 1089868.2, "trend": 16.265, "fair_value": 17.569551, "relative_strength": -29.309125, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.775918, "energy": 10.534341, "activity_lines": [ 16.213334, 16.232728, 16.128334, 16.190753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.049999, "volume": 341511, "typical_volume": 1075968.9, "trend": 16.25, "fair_value": 17.547115, "relative_strength": -31.483602, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.658241, "energy": 12.173397, "activity_lines": [ 16.16, 16.210909, 16.112381, 16.176882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }