{ "ticker": { "uuid": "048d8bb6-6b1b-40e9-b48a-8b06f80a2295", "symbol": "COIN", "name": "Coinbase Global Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.955, "architecture_energy": 35.624, "architecture_maturity": 28.989, "architecture_confidence": 94.788, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.6, "rotation_up": 20.17, "upward_expansion": 3.94, "deceleration": 49.42, "rotation_down": 51.55, "downward_expansion": 77.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 153.414667, 155.605455, 165.274048, 170.640387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 153.6, "trend_reference": 178.415333, "distance_from_trend": -0.139087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 215.735769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.288018, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.428028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069767, "excess_performance": -0.257221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162504, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.288018, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.42428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043464, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069767, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.715539, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37746693, "relative_activity": 0.860915, "balance": 0.715539, "dry_up": 0.8884, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155309, "annualized_volatility": 0.620334, "from_high_reference": -0.618062, "from_low_reference": 0.104162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 178.415333, "fair_value_reference": 215.735769, "structural_low": 139.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.081754, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.035823, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.554241, "worst_return": -0.318598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.319783, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.300129, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.398332, "worst_return": -0.194272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.204274, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.088664, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.919785, "worst_return": -0.333959, "sufficient": false }, { 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161.648182, 171.961476, 176.734086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 158.29, "volume": 37330368, "typical_volume": 45218092.75, "trend": 184.330333, "fair_value": 214.892564, "relative_strength": -39.475019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.201678, "energy": 33.100369, "activity_lines": [ 158.477333, 159.962364, 170.061333, 174.885011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 146.26, "volume": 47517638, "typical_volume": 44966642.4, "trend": 181.321333, "fair_value": 215.270449, "relative_strength": -43.361337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.529102, "energy": 38.807464, "activity_lines": [ 154.629333, 156.764545, 167.200857, 172.42886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 153.6, "volume": 37746693, "typical_volume": 43844863.2, "trend": 178.415333, "fair_value": 215.735769, "relative_strength": -42.428028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.954724, "energy": 35.623639, "activity_lines": [ 153.414667, 155.605455, 165.274048, 170.640387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }