{ "ticker": { "uuid": "049cb2c9-80d0-4e2a-811e-41a2993ddb40", "symbol": "IAPD", "name": "iShares Asia Pacific Dividend UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.435, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.485, "architecture_energy": 89.203, "architecture_maturity": 8.396, "architecture_confidence": 65.214, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.21, "rotation_up": 83.93, "upward_expansion": 95.71, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 8.08, "downward_expansion": 20.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.781667, 27.28625, 26.986152, 26.861655 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.125, "trend_reference": 26.66004, "distance_from_trend": 0.05495, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.228799, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324851, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.778825, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.065686, "excess_performance": -0.105205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05495, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042241, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01136, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040055, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065686, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.759116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95696, "relative_activity": 1.630435, "balance": 3.759116, "dry_up": 1.984102, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017753, "annualized_volatility": 0.118196, "from_high_reference": -0.009683, "from_low_reference": 0.29629 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.66004, "fair_value_reference": 21.228799, "structural_low": 25.67, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.002746, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.000675, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.072951, "worst_return": -0.053856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008541, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00283, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.127267, "worst_return": -0.046208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041175, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.059682, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.217212, "worst_return": -0.133604, "sufficient": true }, { 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26.63082, 26.623836, 26.570529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.754999, "volume": 111793, "typical_volume": 53851.1, "trend": 26.411682, "fair_value": 21.083939, "relative_strength": -1.522495, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.858296, "energy": 70.801497, "activity_lines": [ 27.146666, 26.835648, 26.734594, 26.665545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.870001, "volume": 231502, "typical_volume": 58455.1, "trend": 26.543607, "fair_value": 21.155512, "relative_strength": -1.825496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.397758, "energy": 81.34702, "activity_lines": [ 27.480667, 27.045922, 26.851477, 26.75963 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.125, "volume": 95696, "typical_volume": 58693.55, "trend": 26.66004, "fair_value": 21.228799, "relative_strength": -3.778825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.485298, "energy": 89.203349, "activity_lines": [ 27.781667, 27.28625, 26.986152, 26.861655 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }