{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04a0063d-80c3-40f5-8a46-13714f47d38e", "symbol": "ZINC", "name": "WisdomTree Zinc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.363, "architecture_energy": 64.323, "architecture_maturity": 42.624, "architecture_confidence": 84.466, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 65.33, "upward_expansion": 86.81, "deceleration": 52.21, "rotation_down": 21.31, "downward_expansion": 11.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.873067, 10.754218, 10.537629, 10.309819 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.006, "trend_reference": 10.034433, "distance_from_trend": 0.096823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.644904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27312, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.643214, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.150413, "excess_performance": -0.020479, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096823, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061485, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27312, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086203, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006432, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000521, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150413, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.996012, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10017, "relative_activity": 1.129726, "balance": 11.996012, "dry_up": 0.467618, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02767, "annualized_volatility": 0.191436, "from_high_reference": -0.028939, "from_low_reference": 0.415563 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.034433, "fair_value_reference": 8.644904, "structural_low": 8.944, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.013649, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": 0.004047, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.243789, "worst_return": -0.183312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.058407, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014821, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.276181, "worst_return": -0.276345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.060827, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.045469, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.278239, "worst_return": -0.183077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 61.600307, "energy": 55.434956, "activity_lines": [ 10.639733, 10.553127, 10.31629, 10.116458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.834, "volume": 1823, "typical_volume": 10220.55, "trend": 9.9106, "fair_value": 8.598314, "relative_strength": 3.010894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.702367, "energy": 69.623383, "activity_lines": [ 10.7148, 10.6148, 10.389043, 10.180131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.888, "volume": 856, "typical_volume": 9021.9, "trend": 9.973233, "fair_value": 8.620353, "relative_strength": 2.645606, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.315649, "energy": 74.182984, "activity_lines": [ 10.791867, 10.677927, 10.460471, 10.243189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.006, "volume": 10017, "typical_volume": 8866.75, "trend": 10.034433, "fair_value": 8.644904, "relative_strength": 0.643214, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.362896, "energy": 64.322633, "activity_lines": [ 10.873067, 10.754218, 10.537629, 10.309819 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }