{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04a6d2ed-fb07-412a-829d-46195fd4c96d", "symbol": "CPSH", "name": "Cps Technologies", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.103, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.224, "architecture_energy": 27.088, "architecture_maturity": 11.314, "architecture_confidence": 57.378, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.57, "rotation_up": 16.66, "upward_expansion": 17.83, "deceleration": 56.08, "rotation_down": 59.01, "downward_expansion": 47.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.323333, 4.819273, 5.314143, 5.17428 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.47, "trend_reference": 5.059, "distance_from_trend": -0.116426, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.802734, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.594871, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.995783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.123529, "excess_performance": -0.310983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116426, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155814, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.594871, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053532, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099958, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010251, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123529, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.641345, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1367900, "relative_activity": 0.219213, "balance": 2.641345, "dry_up": 0.265545, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.470138, "annualized_volatility": 1.112756, "from_high_reference": -0.689368, "from_low_reference": 0.568421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.059, "fair_value_reference": 2.802734, "structural_low": 3.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.921053, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.843433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.921053, "worst_return": 0.921053, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.664474, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.464627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.664474, "worst_return": 0.664474, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.618421, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.309597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.618421, "worst_return": 1.618421, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 2.473684, 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"2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136986, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126482, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040752, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.573913, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191336, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 6.024, 6.289818, 5.700286, 5.359204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.78, "volume": 1742067, "typical_volume": 6082392.25, "trend": 4.932667, "fair_value": 2.766452, "relative_strength": -2.606143, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.509208, "energy": 15.657951, "activity_lines": [ 5.486667, 6.058727, 5.661762, 5.352323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.36, "volume": 1708476, "typical_volume": 6127734.9, "trend": 4.970333, "fair_value": 2.775683, "relative_strength": -7.770417, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.051897, "energy": 16.000693, "activity_lines": [ 4.938667, 5.754727, 5.582048, 5.315376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.44, "volume": 1205728, "typical_volume": 6114196.65, "trend": 5.011333, "fair_value": 2.785619, "relative_strength": -5.092868, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.867587, "energy": 20.162773, "activity_lines": [ 4.650667, 5.458182, 5.510524, 5.281161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.92, "volume": 2345954, "typical_volume": 6199184.85, "trend": 5.035333, "fair_value": 2.792734, "relative_strength": -16.769684, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.486834, "energy": 25.523495, "activity_lines": [ 4.336667, 5.069818, 5.386476, 5.210753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.47, "volume": 1367900, "typical_volume": 6240055.75, "trend": 5.059, "fair_value": 2.802734, "relative_strength": -9.995783, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.223823, "energy": 27.087947, "activity_lines": [ 4.323333, 4.819273, 5.314143, 5.17428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }