{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04ae5048-5b0c-4c81-9438-04b2ff0c767b", "symbol": "JPMQ", "name": "Fineco AM MarketVector Japan Quality Tilt Sustainable UCITS ETF A Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.025, "architecture_energy": 34.086, "architecture_maturity": 63.48, "architecture_confidence": 82.972, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.75, "rotation_up": 36.9, "upward_expansion": 62.37, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 27.52, "downward_expansion": 21.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 155.232667, 155.751637, 153.297429, 150.401957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 158.940002, "trend_reference": 147.030333, "distance_from_trend": 0.081001, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 128.354699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.238287, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.521258, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116387, "excess_performance": -0.054505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081001, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054276, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.238287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062529, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025213, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116387, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.970399, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 813, "relative_activity": 0.810124, "balance": 4.970399, "dry_up": 1.571671, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02883, "annualized_volatility": 0.200801, "from_high_reference": -0.009781, "from_low_reference": 0.295143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 147.030333, "fair_value_reference": 128.354699, "structural_low": 132.199997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.057007, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011753, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.06697, "worst_return": 0.047045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.167783, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01401, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167783, "worst_return": 0.167783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012387, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065803, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037428, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-14", "close": 113.349998, "volume": 34, 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"2024-08-02", "close": 115.529999, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-09", "close": 109.449997, "volume": 354, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-16", "close": 114.849998, "volume": 122, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-23", "close": 117.239998, "volume": 188, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"typical_volume": 981.65, "trend": 146.364666, "fair_value": 128.081616, "relative_strength": -3.768782, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.995938, "energy": 30.608587, "activity_lines": [ 153.998666, 155.006546, 152.320572, 149.590645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 158.940002, "volume": 813, "typical_volume": 1003.55, "trend": 147.030333, "fair_value": 128.354699, "relative_strength": -2.521258, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.025298, "energy": 34.085569, "activity_lines": [ 155.232667, 155.751637, 153.297429, 150.401957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }