{ "ticker": { "uuid": "04b066e9-9a08-4360-81d8-953c3405eba8", "symbol": "183710", "name": "KB KBSTAR Equity Balanced ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.979, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -10.912, "architecture_energy": 28.866, "architecture_maturity": 62.087, "architecture_confidence": 88.344, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.48, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 42.97, "deceleration": 87.87, "rotation_down": 53.32, "downward_expansion": 39.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 90396.666667, 96413.727273, 97937.121243, 93863.424714 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 86455.0, "trend_reference": 87646.073438, "distance_from_trend": -0.01359, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50661.831581, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.706512, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.620897, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.241991, "excess_performance": 0.012163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195526, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.706512, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.430595, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006209, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090229, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.241991, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.499939, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 900, "relative_activity": 0.198968, "balance": 2.499939, "dry_up": 0.430931, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106389, "annualized_volatility": 0.400773, "from_high_reference": -0.276557, "from_low_reference": 0.907556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87646.073438, "fair_value_reference": 50661.831581, "structural_low": 69645.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007001, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.000532, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.230463, "worst_return": -0.016525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025225, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00557, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.277896, "worst_return": -0.031899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.050825, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071123, "worst_return": -0.018002, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025946, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007044, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040747, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0135, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020188, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": 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"close": 91060.0, "volume": 1095, "typical_volume": 4691.65, "trend": 86879.906771, "fair_value": 50347.538712, "relative_strength": 0.473921, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.914219, "energy": 23.227569, "activity_lines": [ 93680.333333, 99409.905682, 98669.869829, 93890.838055 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86455.0, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 4523.35, "trend": 87646.073438, "fair_value": 50661.831581, "relative_strength": 0.620897, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.912412, "energy": 28.865971, "activity_lines": [ 90396.666667, 96413.727273, 97937.121243, 93863.424714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }